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  • WEEKLY POLITICAL UPDATE – SENATE/ELECTORAL MAP, WHO DO I THINK WON THE FIRST DEBATE?

WEEKLY POLITICAL UPDATE – SENATE/ELECTORAL MAP, WHO DO I THINK WON THE FIRST DEBATE?

So, this is a sports website, but once a week, every Tuesday, from now till election day, this will become a sports website with  a hint of politics. I will be giving my “ratings” for the presidential and senate races. Now before we begin let me say that these ratings are based off of polls, demographics, and election history. How this works is the darker red a state is, the more likely to go republican it is, the darker the blue, the more likely it is to go democrat. The darkest is guaranteed, medium is likely, and lightest is leaning. Tan states are “Toss Up States” that could go either way, and in the case of the senate gray states don’t have elections this year.

SENATE

Changes since last Tuesday

North Carolina – Lean Republican to Toss-Up

New Polls in North Carolina – Gravis Marketing (D+9), High Point (R+2), PPP (Tie), Fox (R+6)

PRESIDENTIAL

Changes since last Tuesday
Georgia (16 EV’s) – Likely Republican to Guaranteed Republican
Alaska (3 EV’s) – Likely Republican to Guaranteed Republican
Rhode Island (4 EV’s) – Likely Democrat to Guaranteed Democrat
Virginia (13 EV’s)- Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat
New Polls in Georgia – Quinnipiac  (R+7), Landmark (R+4), JMC (R+6), Ipsos (R+3), Google (R+15), CVoter (R+8)
New Polls in Alaska – CVoter (R+15), Google (R+18)
New Polls in Rhode Island – CVoter  (D+16), Google (D+16)
New Polls in Virginia – YouGov (D+8), CNU (D+6), Quinnipiac (D+6), Roanoke (D+7), Ipsos (D+7), CVoter (R+4), Google (R+1)

Who won the debate?

Wow, that was one of the most interesting debates that I have ever seen. Trump started off well, acting presidential and laying out his plans for trade, which in my opinion is his strongest topic. After about 20 minutes of substantive policy talk about the candidates tax plans and trade the debate quickly deteriorated into the “soundbite” portion of the debate with Trump saying “Why Not?” when Clinton asked if he was going to blame her for everything and saying “That makes me smart” when Clinton accused him of evading paying federal taxes. When asked about releasing his tax returns Trump shot back at Clinton by saying he would release his taxes against his lawyers orders when Clinton released her deleted emails in arguably his best moment of the night, “When she releases her 33,000 e-mails that have been deleted. As soon as she releases her 33,000 e-mails, I will release my tax returns.” The businessman then claimed he opposed the war in Iraq, a claim continually proven to be a lie. Moderator Lester Holt asked Trump about his temperament and Trump said that temperament is “my strongest asset, maybe by far,” which was met by laughs from Former Secretary Clinton. In the closing moments Clinton attacked Trump on his rude comments towards women and Trump said that Clinton didn’t “have the stamina” to become president during his final moments. At the end of the day Hillary really didn’t do much she answered her questions based on policy and only attacked Trump when he interrupted her (which he did approximately 9000 times) but Trump shot himself in the foot, repeatedly, and he really cost himself on the birther issue. Overall, I agree with most Americans when I say that Clinton won, not by doing well, but by Trump shooting himself in the foot.

Some other great quotes:

“Now, in all fairness to Secretary Clinton, yes, is that OK? Good. I want you to be very happy. It’s very important to me.” – Trump, asking Clinton if the title “Secretary” was ok for her

“That’s called business, by the way.” – Trump when Clinton accused him of benefiting from the housing crash

“Donald, I know you live in your own reality.” – Clinton when Trump said she supports the TPP

“No. You’re wrong.” – Trump to Moderator Lester Holt when Holt said stop and frisk was unconstitutional, Trump then said “It went before a judge who was a very against-police judge,”

“Whoo. OK.” – Clinton after Trump and Holt go back and forth on wether or not Trump supported the Iraq War

“That line’s getting a little bit old. I must say.” – Trump, after Clinton said  “a man who can be provoked by a tweet, should not have his fingers anywhere near the nuclear codes.” Clinton then replied to Trump “It’s a good one though”

“She doesn’t have the look, she doesn’t have the stamina. I said she doesn’t have the stamina and I don’t believe she does have the stamina. To be president of this country, you need tremendous stamina.” – Trump

“As soon as he travels to 112 countries and negotiates a peace deal, a cease-fire, a release of dissidents, an opening of new opportunities and nations around the world, or even spends 11 hours testifying in front of a congressional committee, he can talk to me about stamina.” – Clinton’s response to the previous quote

“I certainly will support the outcome of this election.” – Clinton “If she wins, I will absolutely support her.” – Trump

Note: In a CNN “Snap Debate Poll” 62% said Clinton won the debate, 27% said Trump, and 11% were undecided

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