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College Football Picks & Predictions For Every Game – Week Five

After the SEC kicked off their season last week, they will take center stage once again as #13 Texas A&M will take on #2 Alabama and #7 Auburn will take on #4 Georgia. Also on the docket:

  • Ole Miss and Kentucky square off after dropping games to top-ten foes in their openers, both looking to avoid an 0-2 start
  • #18 Oklahoma tries to rebound from last week’s loss as they travel to Ames to face Iowa State
  • #1 Clemson gets their first test of the year against unbeaten Virginia
  • After a close scare last week, #9 Texas looks to get things back on track against TCU
  • #21 Tennessee will try to hold onto their spot in the crowded top 25 against Missouri
  • Will Muschamp will try to get one over on his former employer as South Carolina takes on #3 Florida
  • A showdown between the #3 and #4 in the American as #25 Memphis takes on SMU

2020 Prediction Stats

Straight Up: 64-15 (81%)
ATS Best Bets: 15-4 (+NINE UNITS!!!)
ATS Total: 43-32-4
Last Week
Straight Up: 26-4 (87%)
ATS Best Bets: 5-1 (!!!)
ATS Total: 20-7-3 (!!!)

Best Bets

Arkansas State (-3) @ Coastal Carolina – 12 PM ET, ESPN2
#13 Texas A&M (+17.5) @ #2 Alabama – 3:30 PM ET, CBS
#25 Memphis (-2.5) @ SMU – 3:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Virginia Tech (-9.5) @ Duke – 4 PM ET, ACC Network
Navy (+2) @ Air Force – 6 PM ET, CBSSN
Georgia Southern (-15.5) @ ULM – 7 PM ET, ESPN+
Virginia (+30.5) @ #1 Clemson – 8 PM ET, ACC Network

Note: All projected scores are based on 1,000 simulations of the CSD Prime computer model – with some leeway for tweaks in the event of circumstances the model can’t pick up (e.g. injury)

Friday, October 2nd

Campbell (0-3) @ Wake Forest (0-2)
7 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Wake Forest -34.5

CSD Pick: Wake Forest 35, Campbell 5

Louisiana Tech (2-0) @ #22 BYU (2-0)
9 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: BYU -24

CSD Pick: BYU 38, Louisiana Tech 15

Saturday, October 3rd

South Carolina (0-1 SEC) @ #3 Florida (1-0 SEC)

12 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Florida -18.5

South Carolina may have come up short against Tennessee in their season opener, but they looked great in the process, narrowly falling 31-27 to the then-#16 Volunteers, and moving into the CSD Prime computer model top 25. The Gamecocks aren’t going to beat Florida on the road here, the Gators are a legit top-five team, but don’t be surprised if this is closer than the experts think.

CSD Pick: Florida 31, South Carolina 15

TCU (0-1, 0-1 Big 12) @ #9 Texas (2-0, 1-0 Big 12)

12 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Texas -13

Texas *really* struggled last week against Texas Tech, needing overtime to beat a Red Raider team that could barely get by Houston Baptist. On the other side, TCU found their quarterback. Max Duggan didn’t start, but he looked great in relief after being cleared to play following a heart diagnosis that put his season in doubt. Texas is more talented here, and they’re at home, but don’t be surprised if this is close down to the wire.

CSD Pick: Texas 32, TCU 21

Missouri (0-1 SEC) @ #21 Tennessee (1-0 SEC)

12 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Tennessee -10.5

Tennessee looked a little shaky last week against South Carolina, but they’ll have a chance to correct that as they take on 0-1 Missouri at home. Mizzou covered against Alabama last week, but with most of Eli Drinkwitz’s boys’ production in garbage time, it’s hard to tell how “real” the 19 points they scored were. I expect the Mizzou defense to be good, but the gap on offense is just too big. I’m taking Jarrett Guarantano and the Vols at home.

CSD Pick: Tennessee 25, Missouri 15

NC State (1-1, 1-1 ACC) @ #24 Pitt (3-0, 2-0 ACC)
12 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Pitt -14

CSD Pick: Pitt 25, NC State 15

East Carolina (0-1) @ Georgia State (0-1)
12 PM ET, ESPNU
Vegas Line: Georgia State -1

CSD Pick: Georgia State 30, East Carolina 28

Arkansas State (1-1) @ Coastal Carolina (2-0)
12 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Arkansas State -3

What may be a pivotal game in the Sun Belt race will get national attention in the noon slot. Both of these teams made headlines for beating Big 12 foes earlier this year, and while Arkansas State is the team with the loss and on the road, they are just a much more talented team than the Chanticleers. Arkansas State WR Jonathan Adams is great, and Vidal Scott is a monstrous presence off the edge. The Red Wolves should easily cover three.

CSD Pick: Arkansas State 33, Coastal Carolina 23

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Arkansas State -3

Baylor (1-0, 1-0 Big 12) @ West Virginia (1-1, 0-1 Big 12)
12 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Baylor -3

CSD Pick: West Virginia 23, Baylor 22

UTSA (3-0, 1-0 C-USA) @ UAB (2-1)
12:30 PM ET, Stadium
Vegas Line: UAB –18.5

CSD Pick: UAB 34, UTSA 10

North Alabama @ Liberty (2-0)
1 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Liberty -30.5

CSD Pick: Liberty 45, North Alabama 13

Abilene Christian (0-1) @ Army (2-1)
1:30 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Army -31

CSD Pick: Army 43, Abilene Christian 14

#13 Texas A&M (1-0 SEC) @ #2 Alabama (1-0 SEC)

3:30 PM ET, CBS
Vegas Line: Alabama -17.5

So…. yeah. I’ve been high on Texas A&M all offseason, had them ranked 6th in the preseason, called them a playoff contender, and they go out in their first game and struggle mightily with a Vanderbilt team that might not win a game this year. The final score was 17-12. Ok. So that’s not great. Especially not for a team that’s supposed to be an offensive juggernaut, but these are the types of kinks you work out in week one.

The Crimson Tide looked great in their first game, there were some holes on defense, Malachi Moore struggled, but the offense was superb. QB Mac Jones had the performance of the week at the QB spot, earning a 93.4 grade from PFF; Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, and Najee Harris also all impressed. I mean, Alabama is going to be good this year, not necessarily because they’ll be “playing angry” like the media narrative, but mostly because this is just a really good group of guys. That being said, I think A&M covers here. Kellen Mond played the worst game of his life against Arkansas, and he will be out to prove week one was an aberration, and so, stubbornly, I’ll take the Aggies to cover the 17.5

CSD Pick: Alabama 35, Texas A&M 23

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Texas A&M +17.5

#12 North Carolina (1-0, 1-0 ACC) @ Boston College (2-0, 1-0 ACC)
3:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: North Carolina -11.5

CSD Pick: North Carolina 37, Boston College 24

USF (1-1) @ #15 Cincinnati (2-0)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Cincinnati -21.5

CSD Pick: Cincinnati 35, USF 14

#17 Oklahoma State (2-0, 1-0 Big 12) @ Kansas (0-2, 0-1 Big 12)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State –21

CSD Pick: Oklahoma State 38, Kansas 14

#25 Memphis (1-0) @ SMU (3-0)

3:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Memphis -2.5

Memphis is dealing with the aftermath of a COVID outbreak on the team, but unless half the team is out, there is no way the line should be this low. I’ve exploited Vegas overreacting to COVID outbreaks in the past, including with Louisiana Tech and Virginia Tech in recent weeks, and I think this is another repeat. QB Brady White will be great for Memphis, and the Tigers will roll, but the real winners will be the viewers. These two teams had an epic 54-48 shootout last year.

CSD Pick: Memphis 43, SMU 33

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Memphis -2.5

Texas Tech (1-1, 0-1 Big 12) @ Kansas State (1-1, 1-0 Big 12)
3:30 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Kansas State -3

CSD Pick: Kansas State 34, Texas Tech 29

Charlotte (0-1) @ Florida Atlantic
4 PM ET, ESPNU
Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic -7

CSD Pick: Florida Atlantic 35, Charlotte 30

Virginia Tech (1-0, 1-0 ACC) @ Duke (0-3, 0-3 ACC)
4 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech -9.5

What?? This line is insane. Jump on it before it moves. Duke is the worst team in the ACC, one that just turned the ball over seven times against Virginia. Virginia Tech is a top-15 team in the country in my estimation. I jumped all over VT -7 against NC State last week, and the Hokies won by triple that, expect a similar result here.

CSD Pick: Virginia Tech 36, Duke 18

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Virginia Tech -9.5

Ole Miss (0-1 SEC) @ Kentucky (0-1 SEC)

4 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Kentucky -7

Both of these teams dropped their openers to top-ten foes and need a victory to avoid an 0-2 start to the year, so the stakes are very high in this one. Ole Miss’ offense, especially the passing game, looked awesome against Florida, but the defense just wasn’t there. Kentucky doesn’t have that issue. The Wildcats are a well-rounded, a fundamentally solid team, and they are at home. They should pick up the win here, but an upset is a real possibility. Ole Miss QB Matt Corral was bonkers in the opener.

CSD Pick: Kentucky 34, Ole Miss 28

Jacksonville State @ Florida State (0-2)
4 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Florida State -26.5

CSD Pick: Florida State 38, Jacksonville State 11

WKU (0-2) @ Middle Tennessee (0-3, 0-1 C-USA)
5 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: WKU -7

CSD Pick: WKU 30, Middle Tennessee 25

Navy (1-1) @ Air Force
6 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Air Force -2

Air Force will return earlier than the rest of the MWC as they take on rival Navy here. The Falcons won’t have their QB here, and they’re top returning receiver had three catches last year, so the passing game will be non-existent. I don’t expect either of these teams to be good this year, but I’ll take Navy, the devil I know, plus the points.

CSD Pick: Navy 25, Air Force 23

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Navy +2

Georgia Southern (1-1, 0-1 Sun Belt) @ ULM (0-3, 0-1 Sun Belt)
7 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Georgia Southern -15.5

ULM is perhaps the worst FBS team in the country, while Georgia Southern almost upset a top-25 team last week. Eagles QB Shai Werts is a star, and 15.5 points is much too short of a line. Werts and company should easily cover that number and pick up their first Sun Belt victory this year.

CSD Pick: Georgia Southern 37, ULM 15

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Georgia Southern -15.5

#7 Auburn (1-0, 1-0 SEC) @ #4 Georgia (1-0, 1-0 SEC)

7:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Georgia -7

Ok, so, I like Georgia here. The defense is amazing, maybe the best in the country. Richard LeCounte is a star, they are at home, BUT. It is tough to pick a team when I have no idea who the quarterback will be. Jamie Newman opted out before the season, and replacement D’Wan Mathis wasn’t good in the opener, he got benched. In came Stetson Bennett (who was fourth on the depth chart in the summer), who rocked, throwing for 211 yards and two touchdowns. So, you would think Bennett gets the nod this week? Maybe not, as USC transfer JT Daniels has been medically cleared to play.

I like Bennett better than Daniels personally, but the Dawgs still haven’t said who is playing, or if they’ll rotate between the two (or 3)! I’m still not sold on Bo Nix throwing against elite SEC defenses like Georgia and for that reason, I’m taking UGA, but, for the love of god Kirby Smart, pick a QB.

CSD Pick: Georgia 27, Auburn 21

Tulsa (0-1) @ #11 UCF (2-0, 1-0 American)
7:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: UCF -21

CSD Pick: UCF 44, Tulsa 26

Arkansas (0-1 SEC) @ #16 Mississippi State (1-0 SEC)
7:30 PM ET, SEC Network Alternate
Vegas Line: Mississippi State -17.5

CSD Pick: Mississippi State 40, Arkansas 19

#18 Oklahoma (1-1, 0-1 Big 12) @ Iowa State (1-1, 1-0 Big 12)

7:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Oklahoma -8.5

Oklahoma, after dropping their Big 12 opener to Kansas State last week, needs a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. They take on an Iowa State team not unfamiliar with embarrassing losses, the Cyclones were the biggest casualty of week two, they lost to Louisiana, 31-14.

I like this Iowa State team more than most, but Lincoln Riley is too good of a coach to lose two in a row. He will have his guys fired up and ready to go, QB Spencer Rattler will return to the prospect he’s touted as being, and the Sooners will get things back on track.

CSD Pick: Oklahoma 35, Iowa State 28

#20 LSU (0-1 SEC) @ Vanderbilt (0-1 SEC)
7:30 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: LSU -20.5

CSD Pick: LSU 37, Vanderbilt 16

Southern Miss (0-3, 0-1 C-USA) @ North Texas (1-1)
7:30 PM ET, Stadium
Vegas Line: North Texas -1.5

CSD Pick: Southern Miss 32, North Texas 31

Virginia (1-0, 1-0 ACC) @ #1 Clemson (2-0, 1-0 ACC)

8 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Clemson -30.5

You don’t need me to tell you how good Clemson is. QB Trevor Lawrence is the best player in the country, DT Jordan Williams and MLB James Skalski are All-American contenders, the offensive line is great, this is the best team in the country, and they are beating Virginia at home. Going into any more depth on that would be boring, so instead, I’ll focus on why I think Virginia will cover the massive 30.5-point spread.

The Cavaliers lost star Bryce Perkins coming into this year, but new QB Brennan Armstrong looks to be a better passer than Perkins by a significant margin and RB Wayne Taulapapa seems to have finally stepped into a true #1 role. The linebacking corps, with Nick Jackson, Zane Zandier, and Charles Snowden, competes with the best in the conference, and I think the Cavs’ safety duo can keep Lawrence from going completely insane. This Virginia team is good, and while they’ll lose, they shouldn’t be underdogs by this margin.

CSD Pick: Clemson 43, Virginia 19

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Virginia +30.5

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