CSD College Football Computer Rankings Week 4 – LSU Jumps to #6

Given that FCS games do not count in the model, games against FCS teams will not show up in each team’s record.

#1 – Alabama (3-0) – No Change

Duh.

#2 – Ohio State (3-0) – No Change

Duh.

#3 – Georgia (2-0) – No Change

Duh.

#4 – Clemson (2-0) – Up 1

Oklahoma slightly underperformed expectations this week against Iowa State, leading the Tigers to take back their #4 spot.

#5 – Oklahoma (3-0) – Down 1

Read above.

#6 – LSU (2-0) – Up 7

A big road win over Auburn adds to a resume that already featured a neutral site victory over Miami.

#7 – Penn State (3-0) – Up 2

The Nittany Lions continue to take care of business after struggling in week one, they are not quite back to where they were before the Appalachian State scare though.

#8 – Washington (1-1) – No Change

The Huskies looked a little vulnerable @ Utah this week.

#9 – Michigan (2-1) – Up 1

This is where computer models in general differ from the polls. Losing to a top 25 team by one possession on the road doesn’t hurt you at all in most CPU models, while the one in the loss column sticks in most voter’s minds. The Wolverines have taken care of business since then and have long passed Notre Dame.

#10 – TCU (1-1) – Up 5

TCU gave Ohio State all it could handle Saturday night, and the Horned Frogs pull a Texas A&M and actually move up from a loss.

#11 – Mississippi State (2-0) – Up 1

The Bulldogs never looked back against Sun Belt foe Louisiana-Lafayette, winning 56-10.

#12 – Auburn (1-1) – Down 5

Auburn and LSU pretty much played a tossup game, but the Tigers came into the game as seven point favorites, so they fall a few spots in the model.

#13 – Virginia Tech (1-0) – Down 2

VT’s game against East Carolina was rained out due to the hurricane, leading the Hokies to get passed by a couple teams

#14 – Stanford (2-0) – No Change

Had an FCS opponent, no change.

#15 – Wisconsin (2-1) – Down 9

Wisconsin got out-Wisconsined at home against BYU this week, the model tries not to overreact to one bad game, but if the trend continues the Badgers will fall much farther.

#16 – Oklahoma State (2-0) – Up 6

A dominating home win over a top 25 team moves the Pokes up a few spots in the rankings.

#17 – Texas A&M (1-1) – Up 1

Took care of business against UL-Monroe, they move up a spot.

#18 – Miami (1-1) – Up 2

Miami survived what many thought could be a tough test @ Toledo on Saturday, and they move up a couple spots because of it.

#19 – UCF (1-0) – Up 2

UCF would have destroyed an ACC team this week if the game wasn’t cancelled due to the hurricane. The Golden Knights move up a couple spots due to some losses.

#20 – Boise State (2-1) – Down 1

No shame in losing to a very good team on the road, the Broncos will recover and are certainly still in contention for a New Year’s Six Bowl slot.

#21 – Washington State (2-0) – Up 2

The Cougars are perhaps the surprise of the season so far, the model expected them to be pretty average, but here they are in the top 25.

#22 – Utah (1-1) – NEW

Another spot where a team moves up despite losing. The Utes played Washington tough and if it wasn’t for turnovers and a horrific 1.4 points per trip inside the 40, the Utes could have pulled a major upset.

#23 – Iowa (2-0) – Up 1

The Hawkeyes are slowly creeping, they’ve dominated all three games so far (one was vs FCS), and they’ve got a really good shot at beating Wisconsin on Saturday.

#24 – Kentucky (2-0) – NEW

The Wildcats had an FCS this week, but thanks to a couple teams ahead of them losing, they make the leap into the top 25.

#25 – Notre Dame (3-0) – Down 9

This is where computers disagree with the polls the most. The Fighting Irish are top ten in the polls but 25th here, 26th in Sagarin, and 18th in S&P+. This is because computer models “watch” every game. Poll voters see Notre Dame won the past three weeks and keep moving them up. My computer sees that the Irish did about as expected week one (won by a touchdown) and then vastly underperformed expectations in week two and three, even if they still ended up winning those games. Teams that consistently underperform and win eventually underperform and lose, a lot of it is just luck. Don’t be shocked if the Irish get upset by Wake this week.

Quarterly Conference Rankings Time!

  1. SEC – No Change from preseason
  2. Big 12 – Up 1
  3. Big Ten – Down 1
  4. Pac-12 – Up 1
  5. ACC – Down 1
  6. AAC – No Change
  7. MWC – Up 1
  8. Independents – Down 1
  9. Sun Belt – Up 2
  10. MAC – Down 1
  11. Conference USA – Down 1

FULL 1-130 Rankings

Rank Team Conference
1 Alabama SEC
2 Ohio State Big Ten
3 Georgia SEC
4 Clemson ACC
5 Oklahoma Big 12
6 Louisiana State SEC
7 Penn State Big Ten
8 Washington Pac-12
9 Michigan Big Ten
10 Texas Christian Big 12
11 Mississippi State SEC
12 Auburn SEC
13 Virginia Tech ACC
14 Stanford Pac-12
15 Wisconsin Big Ten
16 Oklahoma State Big 12
17 Texas A&M SEC
18 Miami (FL) ACC
19 Central Florida AAC
20 Boise State MWC
21 Washington State Pac-12
22 Utah Pac-12
23 Iowa Big Ten
24 Kentucky SEC
25 Notre Dame Ind
26 Southern California Pac-12
27 West Virginia Big 12
28 South Carolina SEC
29 Michigan State Big Ten
30 Boston College ACC
31 Vanderbilt SEC
32 Oregon Pac-12
33 Duke ACC
34 Memphis AAC
35 Texas Big 12
36 Fresno State MWC
37 Syracuse ACC
38 North Carolina State ACC
39 Appalachian State Sun Belt
40 California Pac-12
41 Missouri SEC
42 Florida Atlantic CUSA
43 Mississippi SEC
44 Iowa State Big 12
45 Virginia ACC
46 San Diego State MWC
47 Arizona State Pac-12
48 Georgia Tech ACC
49 Kansas Big 12
50 Cincinnati AAC
51 Minnesota Big Ten
52 Temple AAC
53 Purdue Big Ten
54 North Texas CUSA
55 Toledo MAC
56 Pittsburgh ACC
57 Arkansas State Sun Belt
58 Baylor Big 12
59 Utah State MWC
60 Florida SEC
61 Wake Forest ACC
62 South Florida AAC
63 Houston AAC
64 Nebraska Big Ten
65 Northwestern Big Ten
66 Marshall CUSA
67 Indiana Big Ten
68 Texas Tech Big 12
69 Colorado Pac-12
70 Arizona Pac-12
71 Troy Sun Belt
72 Brigham Young Ind
73 Kansas State Big 12
74 Louisville ACC
75 Western Kentucky CUSA
76 Tennessee SEC
77 Louisiana Tech CUSA
78 Buffalo MAC
79 Maryland Big Ten
80 Eastern Michigan MAC
81 Florida State ACC
82 Tulsa AAC
83 Nevada-Las Vegas MWC
84 Hawaii MWC
85 Tulane AAC
86 UCLA Pac-12
87 Louisiana-Monroe Sun Belt
88 Georgia Southern Sun Belt
89 Rutgers Big Ten
90 East Carolina AAC
91 Navy AAC
92 Ohio MAC
93 North Carolina ACC
94 Alabama-Birmingham CUSA
95 Middle Tennessee State CUSA
96 Western Michigan MAC
97 Wyoming MWC
98 Ball State MAC
99 Army Ind
100 Illinois Big Ten
101 Oregon State Pac-12
102 Arkansas SEC
103 Liberty Ind
104 Southern Methodist AAC
105 Northern Illinois MAC
106 Southern Mississippi CUSA
107 Akron MAC
108 Florida International CUSA
109 Nevada MWC
110 Central Michigan MAC
111 Air Force MWC
112 Bowling Green State MAC
113 Miami (OH) MAC
114 New Mexico MWC
115 Louisiana Sun Belt
116 Colorado State MWC
117 Georgia State Sun Belt
118 South Alabama Sun Belt
119 Rice CUSA
120 Texas-San Antonio CUSA
121 Massachusetts Ind
122 Texas State Sun Belt
123 Old Dominion CUSA
124 New Mexico State Ind
125 Kent State MAC
126 Connecticut AAC
127 San Jose State MWC
128 Charlotte CUSA
129 Coastal Carolina Sun Belt
130 Texas-El Paso CUSA

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