College Football Week 11 Picks and ATS Best Bets

ATS Best Bets

Week One: 3-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 200$)
Week Two: 8-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 700$)
Week Three: 6-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 500$)
Week Four: 3-5 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve lost 200$)
Week Five: 4-3 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 100$)
Week Six: 3-2 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 100$)
Week Seven: 4-2 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 200$)
Week Eight: 2-4 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve lost 200$)
Week Nine: 4-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 300$)
Week Ten: 1-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve canceled out)
Season: 37-20 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 1,700$)

BEST BETS FOR WEEK ELEVEN

NC State (-3) over Boston College – 12PM ET, ABC/ESPN2
Virginia Tech (-3) over Georgia Tech – 12:20PM ET, ACC Network Extra
SMU (+4) over Navy – 3:30PM ET, CBS Sports Network
Florida Atlantic (-4.5) over Western Kentucky – 3:30PM ET, Twitter
Arkansas State (-10.5) over South Alabama – 5PM ET, ESPN3

Tier One

#12Michigan State (7-2) @ #13Ohio State (7-2) – 12PM ET, Fox

I was covering the election on Tuesday (check out my nearly 2000 words of live coverage here if that interests you), but after UCF’s low ranking, the second most surprising thing to me was Michigan State being ranked ahead of Ohio State. The Buckeyes opened as two-touchdown favorites head-to-head, so the Spartans being ranked even one spot higher came as a shock to me. Michigan State picked up a big win last week, and Ohio State not only got upset, but the Buckeyes got absolutely beat down. This is your classic let down/bounce back spot, and the game is being played in Columbus, I’m inclined to agree with Vegas on this one. Give me Ohio State by double digits.

Prediction: Ohio State 37, Michigan State 24

#1Georgia (9-0) @ #10Auburn (7-2) – 3:30PM ET, CBS

Auburn is the biggest wrench in the College Football Playoff conversation, the Tigers have two losses, but they still play three games against teams ranked in the top two. With Georgia this week, Alabama at the end of the year, and then Georgia again in the SEC Championship game, there is no way an 11-2 SEC Champion Auburn gets left out of the playoff. That’s a crazy scenario, shame it won’t even get off the ground. Georgia and Alabama are a head above every other team in the country, and that is why even though both teams go on the road to hostile environments, I see each coming out hanging on to that zero in the loss column. Even against the talented Auburn defensive line, Sony Michel and Nick Chubb are going to cause some serious damage.

Prediction: Georgia 31, Auburn 27

#2Alabama (9-0) @ #16  Mississippi State (7-2) – 7PM ET, ESPN

All three of the top three teams in the country go on the road to face ranked opponents this week, but for some reason, this one isn’t getting the same amount of attention as the other two, and that’s because its Alabama, and nobody thinks the Crimson Tide could possibly lose to Mississippi State, but keep an eye on this one. Alabama is still a double-digit favorite, but the spread on this game is a touchdown closer than Alabama’s matchup with LSU last weekend.  Dan Mullen is a fantastic coach, and I see Mullen figuring out a way to at least slow down the Alabama offense and keep this one close going into the second half, but Alabama’s defense is on a whole other level. The Tide are dealing with some big injuries to the linebacking core, but Bama’s three-deep could start pretty much anywhere in the country. Mississippi State will hang around for a little while, but ‘Bama will pull away late thanks to a second-half surge by Jalen Hurts.

Prediction: Alabama 34, Mississippi State 17

#6TCU (8-1) @ #5Oklahoma (8-1) – 8PM ET, Fox

ESPN has been branding this as “Elimination Saturday,” and they could not be more right when it comes to this TCU-Oklahoma game. The winner of this one has a clear path to the top four, while the loser will probably be eliminated. These teams each have beaten Oklahoma State and lost to Iowa State, and the resumes are so similar the two teams were ranked fifth and sixth. Oklahoma’s defense has to come to play on Saturday, they can’t let up 52 like they did last week. TCU has held their last four opponents to seven points or fewer, that isn’t happening against Oklahoma, but that shows you how talented the Horned Frog defense is. If OU’s defense can contain Kenny Hill, I have confidence in the offense to do the rest, even against Gary Patterson.

Prediction: Oklahoma 38, TCU 31

#3Notre Dame (8-1) @ #7Miami (8-0) – 8PM ET, ABC

Miami was a home dog last week, and I picked against the Hurricanes and they proved me wrong. I just must not be a learning animal. For the second straight week, Miami, an undefeated team finds themselves as home underdogs to a one-loss team, and I agree with Vegas here, I think Notre Dame is the better team despite the one in the loss column. To me, this is practically a play-in game for the Fighting Irish. With just Stanford and Navy still on their schedule, and no conference championship game, this is by far the toughest game they will play until January, Miami on the other hand still has Clemson on the docket. I see Brian Kelly’s team coming in motivated and ready to play, and in a hostile environment, the Notre Dame ground game will outclass Mark Richt’s defense, and Notre Dame will lock up a spot in the final four.

Prediction: Notre Dame 33, Miami 30

Tier Two

Toledo (8-1) @ Ohio (7-2) – 7PM ET (Wednesday), ESPN2

Prediction: Toledo 38, Ohio 34

#9Washington (8-1) @ Stanford (6-3) – 10:30PM ET (Friday), Fox Sports 1

Prediction: Washington 31, Stanford 20

#23NC State (6-3) @ Boston College (5-4) – 12PM ET, ABC/ESPN2

Prediction: NC State 34, Boston College 24 (NC State -3 is a BEST BET for Week Eleven)

#15Oklahoma State (7-2) @ #21Iowa State (6-3) – 12PM ET, ABC/ESPN2

Prediction: Oklahoma State 37, Iowa State 24

#17Virginia Tech (7-2) @ Georgia Tech (4-4) – 12:20PM ET, ACC Network Extra

Prediction: Virginia Tech 30, Georgia Tech 21 (Virginia Tech -3 is a BEST BET for Week Eleven)

SMU (6-3) @ Navy (5-3) – 3:30PM ET, CBS Sports Network

Prediction: SMU 34, Navy 31 (SMU +4 is a BEST BET for Week Eleven)

Florida State (3-5) @ #4Clemson (8-1) – 3:30PM ET, ESPN

Prediction: Clemson 35, Florida State 17

#20Iowa (6-3) @ #8Wisconsin (9-0) – 3:30PM ET, ABC

Prediction: Wisconsin 33, Iowa 17

#11USC (8-2) @ Colorado (5-5) – 4PM ET, Fox

Prediction: USC 41, Colorado 27

#19Washington State (7-2) @  Utah (5-4) – 5:30PM ET, Pac-12 Network

Prediction: Washington State 28, Utah 24

Tier Three

Eastern Michigan (3-6) @ Central Michigan (5-4) – 8PM ET (Wednesday), ESPNU

Prediction: Central Michigan 27, Eastern Michigan 21

Arkansas (4-5) @ #24LSU (6-3) – 12PM ET, ESPN

Prediction: LSU 38, Arkansas 17

Duke (4-5) @ Army (7-2) – 12PM ET, CBS Sports Network

Prediction: Army 30, Duke 21

Florida (3-5) @ South Carolina (6-3) – 12PM ET, CBS

Prediction: South Carolina 24, Florida 16

Connecticut (3-6) @ #18UCF (8-0) – 12PM ET, ESPNU

Prediction: UCF 53, Connecticut 17

Rutgers (4-5) @ #14 Penn State (7-2) – 12PM ET, Big Ten Network

Prediction: Penn State 41, Rutgers 14

Wake Forest (5-4) @ Syracuse (4-5) – 3PM ET, ACC Network Extra

Prediction: Wake Forest 33, Syracuse 28

Florida Atlantic (6-3) @ Louisiana Tech (4-5) – 3:30PM ET, Twitter

Prediction: Florida Atlantic 38, Louisiana Tech 27 (Florida Atlantic -4.5 is a BEST BET for Week Eleven)

Michigan (7-2) @ Maryland (4-5) – 3:30PM ET, Big Ten Network

Prediction: Michigan 33, Maryland 14

Virginia (6-3) @ Louisville (5-4) – 3:30PM ET, ESPNU

Prediction: Louisville 35, Virginia 24

West Virginia (6-3) @ Kansas State (5-4) – 3:30PM ET, ESPN2

Prediction: West Virginia 37, Kansas State 31

Kentucky (6-3) @ Vanderbilt (4-5) – 4PM ET, SEC Network

Prediction: Kentucky 28, Vanderbilt 24

Arkansas State (5-2) @ South Alabama (3-6) – 5PM ET, ESPN3

Prediction: Arkansas State 37, South Alabama 17 (Arkansas State -10.5 is a BEST BET for Week Eleven)

Western Kentucky (5-4) @ Marshall (6-3) – 6:30PM ET, BeIn Sports

Prediction: Marshall 30, Western Kentucky 23

UAB (6-3) @ UTSA (5-3) – 7PM ET

Prediction: UTSA 30, UAB 23

Purdue (4-5) @ #25Northwestern (6-3) – 7PM ET, ESPN2

Prediction: Northwestern 28, Purdue 23

Arizona State (5-4) @ UCLA (4-5) – 9:30PM ET, Pac-12 Network

Prediction: Arizona State 33, UCLA 30

Wyoming (6-3) @ Air Force (4-5) – 10:15PM ET, ESPNU

Prediction: Wyoming 30, Air Force 27

Boise State (7-2) @ Colorado State (6-4) – 10:30PM ET, CBS Sports Network

Prediction: Boise State 31, Colorado State 21

Fresno State (6-3) @ Hawai’i (3-6) – 11PM ET

Prediction: Fresno State 31, Hawai’i 21

Leave a Reply