NFL Draft Prospect Breakdown: Josh Allen

Other Breakdowns

Quenton Nelson – 93/100
Saquon Barkley
 – 92/100
Tremaine Edmunds – 89/100
Bradley Chubb – 89/100
Derwin James – 88/100
Roquan Smith – 87/100
Minkah Fitzpatrick – 87/100
Harold Landry – 85/100
Rashaan Evans – 84/100
Will Hernandez – 84/100
Baker Mayfield – 84/100
Sam Darnold – 83/100
Josh Rosen – 83/100
Lamar Jackson – 82/100
Marcus Davenport – 82/100
Calvin Ridley – 81/100
Leighton Vander Esch – 77/100

Stats, Awards, and Accolades

allen allen2

*All Stats via sports-reference.com*

Class: Redshirt Junior
Height: 6’5″
Weight: 237 lbs
Awards & Accolades: Second Team All-Mountain West (2016)

Oh buddy, I’ve been waiting to do this prospect breakdown ever since I started this series. Josh Allen is one of the most polarizing figures in this draft, and by looking at his stats you can see why. Allen has just barely over a 2-1 touchdown to interception ratio for his career and has a wild completion percentage… but, Allen also has the top throwing velocity of any quarterback in this draft, has ideal size for an NFL QB, and ran a 4.75 40-yard dash at 237 pounds, coming in the top quartile of quarterbacks. Leading to much debate over his NFL potential.

Because I knew this would be one of my biggest breakdowns, I rewatched five of Josh Allen’s games from this season: The season opener against Big Ten foe Iowa, his bowl game against Central Michigan, and three conference games to fill in the gaps, against Air Force, Hawaii, and New Mexico. These defenses ranked 15th, 51st, 118th, 124th, and 91st respectively in Bill Connely’s defensive rankings. Can you tell which one was a power conference team?

Pros

Ideal size
Keeps eyes downfield
Hard to sack
Strong enough to break tackles
Generational arm talent
Good mechanics
Sees over offensive line
Throws bullets
Good throwing on the run
Good throwing to the sideline
Quick release

Cons

Played weak competition
Major accuracy issues
Throws too many interceptions
Struggled against power conference teams
Inconsistent as a decision maker
Tends to overthrow receivers
Inconsistent even with short routes

Grades

Short/Intermediate Accuracy – 6.5/10
Field Vision – 8/10
Footwork – 8.5/10
Decision-Making – 6.5/10
Under Pressure – 8/10
Deep Accuracy – 6.5/10
Arm Strength – 10/10
Mobility – 9.5/10

Scheme Fits

West Coast – 6.5/10
Vertical – 8.5/10
Spread – 7.5/10

Overall Grade: 77/100

reminder, this where I think he should go, not where he will go, these rankings also DO NOT take into account positional importance

90+ Superstar
85+ Elite Player (Top Ten)
80+ First Round Talent
77+ Second Round Talent
74+ Third Round Talent
66+ Third Day Talent (Rounds 4-7)

10/10 Rating – Best in the class or close to it
7.5/10 Rating – Average
5/10 Rating – Poor

Josh Allen is unquestionably the most polarizing figure in the 2018 NFL Draft class, some think he should go #1, and some think he shouldn’t go in the top 50. I certainly fall into that second camp. Allen struggled against top competition, and even in Mountain West play, he had a low completion percentage compared to other top quarterback prospects. Allen can make game-changing plays because of his giant arm and athletic ability, but he is just too inconsistent. Allen throws by far the most interceptions of the main quarterbacks in this draft class. Unlike a guy like Lamar Jackson, who does occasionally struggle with accuracy, Josh Allen’s accuracy problems aren’t because of a stance or some other type of motion that can be fixed at the next level, it just is him. He throws with some of the best velocity on the ball ever recorded, but if you are overthrowing seven-yard post routes, why does that even matter.

Allen’s rare arm strength and athleticism lead me to have him as a mid-day two pick despite his accuracy flaws, but if a team wants to spend a top-three pick on the guy, I think that’s crazy. Allen needs a year (at least) to develop into an NFL ready quarterback, and even then, I’m not sure what the root of his accuracy trouble is, or even where to start to fix it. I’m lower on Allen than most, but his “zip” on the ball won’t matter if he misses his receivers half the time.

Leave a Reply