FAQ
Q: Why is Miami still top 15 when they got killed?
A: The model is specifically built to be resistant to one bad game, if the trend continues, the ‘Canes will fall further.
Q: Do FBS vs FCS games affect the model
A: NO, as you can see, Florida State is still in the top 35. If you are wondering why, it is really hard to model for the variance in opponent quality in the FCS. This is something that S&P+ does, but you get things like Auburn moving down 11 spots despite beating Alabama State 63-9.
Q: How is Michigan ahead of Notre Dame?
A: This model is PREDICTIVE, NOT BACKWARDS LOOKING. After almost losing to Ball State, the Fighting Irish fell back in my rankings while Michigan stayed about where they were. If it makes you feel better, pretty much every other college football computer model also has Michigan ahead of the Irish (e.g. S&P+, Sagarin, etc…)
Rank | Team | Conference | Rating |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Alabama | SEC | 56.96165322 |
2 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 55.62745347 |
3 | Georgia | SEC | 52.60289966 |
4 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 49.76816116 |
5 | Clemson | ACC | 48.57248375 |
6 | Auburn | SEC | 48.03730783 |
7 | Washington | Pac-12 | 47.67615278 |
8 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 47.14817896 |
9 | Penn State | Big Ten | 45.92179461 |
10 | Michigan | Big Ten | 45.13907213 |
11 | Stanford | Pac-12 | 43.96070297 |
12 | Mississippi State | SEC | 43.90732163 |
13 | Notre Dame | Ind | 43.38960282 |
14 | Louisiana State | SEC | 42.57086462 |
15 | Texas Christian | Big 12 | 42.46750841 |
16 | Virginia Tech | ACC | 42.44935576 |
17 | Miami (FL) | ACC | 42.02972204 |
18 | Texas A&M | SEC | 41.27535295 |
19 | Southern California | Pac-12 | 41.02829304 |
20 | Boise State | MWC | 40.68319408 |
21 | Central Florida | AAC | 39.61263343 |
22 | Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 39.29179155 |
23 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 38.78202081 |
24 | Iowa | Big Ten | 38.43654547 |
25 | West Virginia | Big 12 | 37.89631073 |
26 | South Carolina | SEC | 37.62744605 |
27 | Oregon | Pac-12 | 37.4396685 |
28 | Utah | Pac-12 | 37.35106617 |
29 | Missouri | SEC | 37.28295854 |
30 | Maryland | Big Ten | 36.86238446 |
31 | Washington State | Pac-12 | 36.76696738 |
32 | Kentucky | SEC | 35.99953158 |
33 | Florida State | ACC | 35.78831388 |
34 | Duke | ACC | 35.37753553 |
35 | Georgia Tech | ACC | 35.06044513 |
36 | Louisville | ACC | 35.05926087 |
37 | Arizona State | Pac-12 | 34.91622522 |
38 | North Carolina State | ACC | 34.72071542 |
39 | Memphis | AAC | 34.48287144 |
40 | Mississippi | SEC | 34.19513628 |
41 | Florida Atlantic | CUSA | 34.11453574 |
42 | Boston College | ACC | 33.65869009 |
43 | Appalachian State | Sun Belt | 33.55471981 |
44 | Fresno State | MWC | 33.18281201 |
45 | Texas | Big 12 | 33.14729734 |
46 | Northwestern | Big Ten | 33.07157679 |
47 | California | Pac-12 | 32.78526124 |
48 | Wake Forest | ACC | 32.76904742 |
49 | Toledo | MAC | 32.0162414 |
50 | Houston | AAC | 31.6996921 |
51 | Iowa State | Big 12 | 31.64349949 |
52 | Cincinnati | AAC | 31.45815819 |
53 | Nebraska | Big Ten | 31.24230488 |
54 | UCLA | Pac-12 | 30.93813722 |
55 | Arkansas State | Sun Belt | 30.80012149 |
56 | Ohio | MAC | 30.74058809 |
57 | Vanderbilt | SEC | 30.61167828 |
58 | Indiana | Big Ten | 30.37934586 |
59 | San Diego State | MWC | 30.23387474 |
60 | Florida | SEC | 30.00665671 |
61 | Purdue | Big Ten | 29.72524527 |
62 | Utah State | MWC | 29.5321553 |
63 | Baylor | Big 12 | 29.519641 |
64 | Colorado | Pac-12 | 29.50672288 |
65 | South Florida | AAC | 29.37361995 |
66 | Arizona | Pac-12 | 29.14535519 |
67 | Marshall | CUSA | 29.06031889 |
68 | Rutgers | Big Ten | 28.91186097 |
69 | Pittsburgh | ACC | 28.83641969 |
70 | Minnesota | Big Ten | 28.8012713 |
71 | North Texas | CUSA | 28.73400148 |
72 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 28.53004167 |
73 | Kansas State | Big 12 | 28.53002284 |
74 | Troy | Sun Belt | 27.44895993 |
75 | Kansas | Big 12 | 27.20724699 |
76 | Louisiana Tech | CUSA | 26.77379296 |
77 | Northern Illinois | MAC | 26.76998925 |
78 | Buffalo | MAC | 26.63432997 |
79 | Arkansas | SEC | 26.39711223 |
80 | Tulsa | AAC | 26.08949991 |
81 | Syracuse | ACC | 26.02366422 |
82 | Tennessee | SEC | 25.97834586 |
83 | Virginia | ACC | 25.59534086 |
84 | Georgia Southern | Sun Belt | 25.34477066 |
85 | Army | Ind | 25.04231806 |
86 | Tulane | AAC | 25.02055401 |
87 | Nevada-Las Vegas | MWC | 24.96243013 |
88 | Eastern Michigan | MAC | 24.48332394 |
89 | Wyoming | MWC | 24.41559807 |
90 | Brigham Young | Ind | 24.24354467 |
91 | North Carolina | ACC | 24.18094084 |
92 | Middle Tennessee State | CUSA | 24.16049578 |
93 | Western Michigan | MAC | 23.97999919 |
94 | Illinois | Big Ten | 23.61905624 |
95 | Navy | AAC | 23.54171173 |
96 | Louisiana-Monroe | Sun Belt | 23.18482754 |
97 | Western Kentucky | CUSA | 22.84903499 |
98 | Oregon State | Pac-12 | 22.76497134 |
99 | Alabama-Birmingham | CUSA | 22.71141938 |
100 | Colorado State | MWC | 22.6711477 |
101 | Hawaii | MWC | 22.59759756 |
102 | New Mexico | MWC | 22.54057506 |
103 | Temple | AAC | 22.51007188 |
104 | East Carolina | AAC | 22.23974061 |
105 | Southern Mississippi | CUSA | 22.23400955 |
106 | Ball State | MAC | 22.14476749 |
107 | Southern Methodist | AAC | 21.7310343 |
108 | Miami (OH) | MAC | 21.51808649 |
109 | Air Force | MWC | 20.80508671 |
110 | Bowling Green State | MAC | 20.65606388 |
111 | South Alabama | Sun Belt | 20.40954762 |
112 | Georgia State | Sun Belt | 20.22394752 |
113 | Louisiana | Sun Belt | 20.04878736 |
114 | Nevada | MWC | 19.88087126 |
115 | Liberty | Ind | 19.4414037 |
116 | Florida International | CUSA | 19.06349632 |
117 | Massachusetts | Ind | 18.934291 |
118 | Akron | MAC | 18.30529994 |
119 | Texas-San Antonio | CUSA | 16.77823644 |
120 | Connecticut | AAC | 16.60319596 |
121 | Central Michigan | MAC | 16.35430429 |
122 | Rice | CUSA | 16.29911569 |
123 | Old Dominion | CUSA | 16.01178861 |
124 | Kent State | MAC | 15.73298349 |
125 | Charlotte | CUSA | 15.04955988 |
126 | Texas State | Sun Belt | 14.7888318 |
127 | San Jose State | MWC | 13.83305768 |
128 | Coastal Carolina | Sun Belt | 13.33298046 |
129 | New Mexico State | Ind | 13.22231318 |
130 | Texas-El Paso | CUSA | 11.46892059 |
lester j berlin
Your explanations are a nice touch.