#10 Utah23
USC30
FINAL
Air Force19
#20 Boise State30
FINAL
#11 Michigan14
#13 Wisconsin35
FINAL
#23 Cal28
Ole Miss20
FINAL
Michigan State31
Northwestern10
FINAL
#8 Auburn28
#17 Texas A&M20
FINAL
#15 UCF34
Pittsburgh35
FINAL
#22 Washington45
BYU19
FINAL
SMU41
#25 TCU38
FINAL
Appalachian State34
North Carolina31
FINAL
Kentucky13
Mississippi State28
FINAL
South Carolina14
Missouri34
FINAL
#16 Oregon21
Stanford6
FINAL
Oklahoma State30
#12 Texas36
FINAL
#7 Notre Dame17
#3 Georgia23
FINAL
Colorado34
#24 Arizona State31
FINAL
Utah State23
San Diego State17
FINAL
  • Home
  • NCAAFB
  • CSD Prime Computer Model 1-130 Rankings After Week Two

CSD Prime Computer Model 1-130 Rankings After Week Two

I figured I’ll start off by answering some common questions this week.

Q: How is Miami still ranked?
A: They lost to a top ten team by four on a neutral and a top 30 team by three on the road, that kinda holds true with a what a team ranked around 20th should do, slightly overperforming against Florida and slightly underperforming against UNC, thus they haven’t dropped that much.

Q: How is Missouri still ranked?
A: They lost a game against Wyoming in week one with a lot of turnover weirdness and such. The way the model works is a team is assigned a “game score” and based upon whether or not that is better than expected given their opponent they move up or down. The model gave Missouri a 75% chance to beat Missouri week one, and given the stats of the Wyoming game they actually received a game score of 55, basically meaning that ignoring who won, based on the stats of the game Missouri should have won 55% of the time, this is done to avoid weirdness like fluky fumbles in the redzone or random missed kicks that aren’t truly reflective of a team’s actual strength. Essentially, they underperformed against Wyoming but not to the degree the final score would suggest, then they went out and smacked West Virginia this week, so they gained back a lot of the bit they did lose.

Q: That game score thing is interesting, were there any games this week where the team that played better according to the model actually lost?
A: Of course, although it happens less frequently than you’d think. This week there were just two cases, both involving college overtime weirdness: Kent State, which beat Kennesaw State in overtime had a game score of 49, Florida State, which beat ULM in overtime had a game score of 39.

Q: Who was the most dominant team this week?
A: Kansas State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia, Oregon, Alabama, Washington State, Oklahoma, Florida, and NC State all had game scores of 100 this week. The highest game score vs a power-five opponent was Iowa against (of course) Rutgers with a 98.

Q: What is the best conference in college football?
A: Average ratings listed below, no real surprises, the most notable thing probably being that the Sun Belt, generally considered to be the weakest conference, comes in 8th.

  1. SEC (Average: +9.8)
    2. Big Ten (Average: +4.9)
    3. Big 12 (Average: +3.7)
    4. Pac-12 (Average: +2.9)
    5. ACC (Average: +2.5)
    6. AAC (Average: -2.7)
    7. MWC (Average: -4.1)
    8. Sun Belt (Average: -6.7)
    9. MAC (Average: -7.2)
    10. CUSA (Average: -7.4)

Q: Who are the biggest movers so far?
A: In the positive direction: North Carolina, Utah State, Maryland, SMU, Kansas State, Colorado State, Cal, Tulane, San Deigo State, and Virginia. In the negative direction: Tennessee, Florida State, FIU, Appalachian State, Arizona State, Nebraska, Syracuse, North Texas, Virginia Tech, and UAB.

Q: Best G5s/Worst P5s?
A: Ah, a classic. The current best G5s are:

  1. UCF
  2. Boise State
  3. Memphis
  4. Cincinnati
  5. Fresno State
  6. Utah State
  7. San Diego State
  8. BYU (if you count them)
  9. Toledo
  10. Temple

The current worst P5s are (with worst being #1):

  1. Kansas
  2. Rutgers
  3. Oregon State
  4. Illinois
  5. Louisville
  6. Tennessee
  7. Duke
  8. Georgia Tech
  9. Arkansas
  10. Indiana

Q: Alright, can I just see the rankings?
A: Here ya go:

RankTeamConfRatingRANKChangeYTD Change
1AlabamaSEC33.08599100
2GeorgiaSEC26.92519200
3ClemsonACC22.21501300
4Louisiana StateSEC19.11623400
5Ohio StateBig Ten17.93373500
6OklahomaBig 1216.37617600
7Texas A&MSEC13.69634744
8Notre DameInd12.68836812
9FloridaSEC11.8907591-1
10MichiganBig Ten11.6055810-3-3
11Penn StateBig Ten10.5203611-3-2
12AuburnSEC10.333261200
13OregonPac-1210.121471344
14TexasBig 129.7907991410
15Mississippi StateSEC9.69386715-2-2
16WisconsinBig Ten8.75464516211
17Miami (FL)ACC8.60231417-11
18IowaBig Ten8.5155741811
19Central FloridaAAC8.3305051923
20MissouriSEC6.905871202-4
21UtahPac-126.75092621-17
22Southern CaliforniaPac-126.6508392251
23Oklahoma StateBig 126.1871312303
24WashingtonPac-126.01784224-10-9
25Michigan StateBig Ten5.75609325-1-5
26Boise StateMWC5.56814626-16
27Texas ChristianBig 125.062925271-2
28MinnesotaBig Ten5.0003281510
29North CarolinaACC4.507913291033
30StanfordPac-124.37399930-4-6
31VirginiaACC4.31418131-114
32South CarolinaSEC4.07644332-1-11
33NorthwesternBig Ten3.931093317
34MarylandBig Ten3.777269342125
35Kansas StateBig 123.385608351119
36North Carolina StateACC3.299047362-1
37MemphisAAC3.16266137-8-7
38Washington StatePac-123.1434853873
39Iowa StateBig 122.77665339-3-8
40CaliforniaPac-122.547569402516
41CincinnatiAAC2.4009674113
42KentuckySEC2.18092742-10-6
43BaylorBig 122.05159343107
44PurdueBig Ten2.022051444-1
45NebraskaBig Ten1.955811455-16
46Fresno StateMWC1.78230946-135
47Utah StateMWC1.69564847426
48MississippiSEC1.69117748-70
49Virginia TechACC1.5973149-14-12
50West VirginiaBig 121.142465502-8
51San Diego StateMWC0.567442512515
52VanderbiltSEC0.5242535265
53Arizona StatePac-120.43671553-16-20
54ColoradoPac-120.38793154359
55ArizonaPac-120.28789255-8-8
56Boston CollegeACC0.229335618
57Brigham YoungInd0.16380257111
58PittsburghACC-0.21455581-5
59UCLAPac-12-0.3217759-15-10
60SyracuseACC-0.3336960-11-14
61ToledoMAC-0.3540461513
62TempleAAC-0.643966218
63Wake ForestACC-0.68431634-8
64HoustonAAC-0.9541164-81
65Southern MethodistAAC-1.030565624
66Florida StateACC-1.0509666-26-32
67IndianaBig Ten-1.18064672-6
68ArmyInd-1.18277681910
69TulaneAAC-1.2675691115
70ArkansasSEC-1.29109707-2
71Texas TechBig 12-1.2971471-9-11
72OhioMAC-1.427157210
73MarshallCUSA-1.55603738-6
74Appalachian StateSun Belt-1.6762174-20-22
75South FloridaAAC-1.8118175170
76Georgia TechACC-1.8222576-16-7
77DukeACC-1.93185771-6
78Florida AtlanticCUSA-1.9440478-141
79Arkansas StateSun Belt-1.95469793-3
80Northern IllinoisMAC-1.9861880115
81TennesseeSEC-2.0767681-20-42
82Southern MississippiCUSA-2.139258260
83TroySun Belt-2.57102830-6
84Western MichiganMAC-2.6899184112
85WyomingMWC-3.1275185-155
86TulsaAAC-3.4229986812
87Colorado StateMWC-3.515987-1216
88LouisvilleACC-3.554548824
89IllinoisBig Ten-3.5606289-17-8
90LouisianaSun Belt-3.7674390-4-2
91Georgia SouthernSun Belt-3.876029122
92Middle Tennessee StateCUSA-3.9072892-182
93North TexasCUSA-4.08871935-13
94NevadaMWC-4.1946394-91
95Air ForceMWC-4.360799512
96BuffaloMAC-4.403869694
97Louisiana TechCUSA-4.8762597-18-10
98Oregon StatePac-12-5.049879843
99Western KentuckyCUSA-5.366049986
100HawaiiMWC-5.53258100-12
101Eastern MichiganMAC-6.106810155
102Miami (OH)MAC-6.46148102-2-3
103Alabama-BirminghamCUSA-6.59812103-2-12
104RutgersBig Ten-6.76636104-10
105Florida InternationalCUSA-7.02564105-21-22
106East CarolinaAAC-7.33331106-21
107KansasBig 12-8.13407107-10-11
108Kent StateMAC-8.2443910823
109Texas StateSun Belt-8.3569210923
110Louisiana-MonroeSun Belt-8.583371107-1
111CharlotteCUSA-9.8938511173
112Georgia StateSun Belt-10.2492112-38
113Nevada-Las VegasMWC-10.9181113-1-5
114Old DominionCUSA-11.002111451
115NavyAAC-11.0756115-1-5
116Ball StateMAC-11.3618116-8-3
117Texas-San AntonioCUSA-11.8482117-22
118LibertyInd-12.295811823
119South AlabamaSun Belt-12.4246119-64
120Bowling Green StateMAC-12.8517120-4-2
121New MexicoMWC-13.44981210-4
122Coastal CarolinaSun Belt-13.700412266
123San Jose StateMWC-14.0084123-1-7
124RiceCUSA-14.5104124-13
125Central MichiganMAC-14.8254125-1-3
126AkronMAC-15.095712610
127New Mexico StateInd-15.3068127-2-2
128MassachusettsInd-17.5731128-2-4
129ConnecticutAAC-18.934212910
130Texas-El PasoCUSA-19.4175130-10

Leave a Reply