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  • College Football Picks & Predictions For Every Game – Week Six

College Football Picks & Predictions For Every Game – Week Six

After shedding it to the SEC for the past couple weeks, the ACC is back in the spotlight, as Trevor Lawrence and #1 Clemson will host D’Eriq King and the #7 Miami Hurricanes. Also on the schedule:

  • #19 Virginia Tech and #8 North Carolina will square off in a battle that could have future ACC Title qualification implications
  • #21 Texas A&M looks to rebound from the loss to Alabama hosting #4 Florida
  • Red River will be a battle of two teams trying to turn their seasons around, as #22 Texas takes on Oklahoma
  • #3 Georgia will host #14 Tennessee in the first big SEC East battle of the season
  • Two teams that pulled upsets earlier this year, Kansas State and TCU, will face off in a Big 12 clash
  • NC State travels to Virginia in a matchup between two potential sleeper teams in the ACC
  • Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss will look to do the impossible hosting #2 Alabama
  • An 0-2 Kentucky team that is a lot better than that record indicates will look to get on the board hosting Mississippi State

2020 Prediction Stats

Straight Up: 87-24 (78%)
ATS Best Bets: 16-10 (+ 6 units)
ATS Total: 58-49-4

Best Bets

Missouri (+20.5) vs #17 LSU – 12 PM ET, TBA
Texas State (+7.5) @ Troy – 3:30 PM ET, ESPN3
Ole Miss (+24.5) vs #2 Alabama – 6 PM ET, ESPN
Temple (PK) @ Navy – 6 PM ET, CBSSN
#7 Miami (+15.5) @ #1 Clemson – 7:30 PM ET, ABC
UTEP (+15) @ Louisiana Tech – 7:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Marshall (-4.5) @ WKU – 7:30 PM ET, FSN/Stadium
Kentucky (-2) vs Mississippi State – 7:30 PM ET, SEC Network
Charlotte (-2.5) @ North Texas – 8 PM ET, ESPNU

Note: All projected scores are based on 1,000 simulations of the CSD Prime computer model – with some leeway for tweaks in the event of circumstances the model can’t pick up (e.g. injury)

Thursday, October 8th

Tulane (2-1, 0-1 American) @ Houston
7:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Houston -5

CSD Pick: Houston 32, Tulane 26

Friday, October 9th

Louisville (1-2, 0-2 ACC) @ Georgia Tech (1-2, 1-1 ACC)
Vegas Line: Louisville -6

CSD Pick: Louisville 31, Georgia Tech 26

Saturday, October 10th

#4 Florida (2-0 SEC) @ #21 Texas A&M (1-1 SEC)

Vegas Line: Florida -6

Texas A&M seems to be a team that I whiffed on this year. I had faith in Kellen Mond and this Texas A&M offense, but through two games, they just haven’t been at the level I expected them to reach. Now, this is still a talented team, and the Aggies will have home-field advantage here, but Florida has been firing on all cylinders so far this year. The Kyle Trask to Kyle Pitts connections racked up touchdown after touchdown against Ole Miss and South Carolina, and I don’t expect an Aggie pass defense that is among the worst in the conference to do much to slow it down. I’ll take the Gators to move to 3-0.

CSD Pick: Florida 31, Texas A&M 27

#19 Virginia Tech (2-0, 2-0 ACC) @ #8 North Carolina (2-0, 2-0 ACC)

Vegas Line: North Carolina -5.5

The Miami vs Clemson showdown in primetime will get all the headlines, but this is a very intriguing matchup between my #4 and #5 teams in the ACC, and could absolutely have an impact on the conference title race.

Neither of these teams hav3 fully lived up to their potential so far, although both have dealt with complications due to COVID. UNC struggled in a 26-22 win over Boston College last Saturday in what was their first game in three weeks, for Virginia Tech, the Hokies were missing QB Hendon Hooker and almost the entire secondary against Duke. Tech will get Hooker back for this one, as they will much of the secondary, but there are just too many questions swirling around this VT team to pick them here. Expect UNC QB Sam Howell to have a standout game, and for the Tar Heels to move to 3-0.

CSD Pick: North Carolina 36, Virginia Tech 31

#17 LSU (1-1 SEC) @ Missouri (0-2 SEC)
12 PM ET, SEC Network Alternate
Vegas Line: LSU -20.5

This game was originally scheduled to be played in Baton Rouge but was moved to Columbia due to the incoming hurricane in the Southeast. LSU will win, but I think the sudden location change may throw the Tigers off their game, not to mention that the offense has been incredibly inconsistent. I expect Missouri and new starter Connor Bazelak to cover the 20.5.

CSD Pick: LSU 36, Missouri 22

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Missouri +20.5

#22 Texas (2-1, 1-1 Big 12) vs. Oklahoma (1-2, 0-2 Big 12) in Dallas, TX

Vegas Line: Oklahoma -2.5

It’s impossible to get excited about Red River this year. Both of these teams, along with really the entire Big 12, have fallen short of expectations this year. Both teams have abysmal secondaries, so at the very least there should be some points on the board here, but I’m going to take Oklahoma to pick up the win, almost for no other reason than that the Sooners losing three in a row would be inconceivable. I also believe that in the scheme of bad defenses, the Texas defense is just a little bit worse. I’ll take OU, close.

CSD Pick: Oklahoma 36, Texas 33

UL Monroe (0-4) @ Liberty (3-0)
Vegas Line: Liberty -21.5

CSD Pick: Liberty 40, UL Monroe 21

NC State (2-1, 2-1 ACC) @ Virginia (1-1, 1-1 ACC)

12 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Virginia -10

This is a game that will fly under the radar, but these are two middle-class teams in the ACC that have potential to sneak into the back half of the top 25 at some point this season, so I’d get some eyes on it if you can.

Virginia has looked really good so far, beating Duke (and forcing seven turnovers in the process!) and also hanging much closer than expected with #1 Clemson. As for NC State, its been up-and-down. The Wolfpack looked excellent in a season-opening win against NC State, then were dominated by a Virginia Tech team that had over a dozen players out with COVID, then rebounded to knock off a ranked Pitt team. I like Virginia QB Brennan Armstrong, though, and I think his play, along with the home edge, will be the difference to a UVa win on Saturday, but this game really could go either way.

CSD Pick: Virginia 32, NC State 25

South Carolina (0-2 SEC) @ Vanderbilt (0-2 SEC)
12 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: South Carolina -11.5

CSD Pick: South Carolina 27, Vanderbilt 11

Duke (0-4, 0-4 ACC) @ Syracuse (1-2, 1-2 ACC)
12:30 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Pick’em

CSD Pick: Syracuse 24, Duke 23

The Citadel (0-3) @ Army (3-1)
Vegas Line: Army -29

CSD Pick: Army 41, The Citadel 8

#14 Tennessee (2-0 SEC) @ #3 Georgia (2-0 SEC)

3:30 PM ET, CBS
Vegas Line: Georgia -14

Alright, time to see if Tennessee is for real. On the road, against a new look Georgia team that is playing like a top-three team in the nation, can they hang in there, or are they getting dominated? That’s the question.

I think the Vols match up well with Georgia; the offensive line of UT is up there with the best in the nation, which should negate some of Georgia’s advantage in the pass rush game. However, this UT team is just too untrustworthy to take straight up on the road against a team of Georgia’s caliber. Stetson Bennett has looked great through two games, and I think he’ll keep the performance up here as the Dawgs move to 3-0 with Alabama coming up.

CSD Pick: Georgia 31, Tennessee 16

UTSA (3-1) @ #15 BYU (3-0)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: BYU -35

CSD Pick: BYU 50, UTSA 16

Texas Tech (1-2, 0-2 Big 12) @ #24 Iowa State (2-1, 2-0 Big 12)
3:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Iowa State -13

CSD Pick: Iowa State 38, Texas Tech 25

Central Arkansas (2-2) @ Arkansas State (1-2)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Arkansas State -14.5

CSD Pick: Arkansas State 39, Central Arkansas 21

Texas State (1-3, 1-0 Sun Belt) @ Troy (1-1)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Troy -7.5

As they’ve played four games, I’ve gotten a lot of eyes on Texas State this year, and while this is a young team, they’ve got a lot of talent, and Jake Spavital’s squad will pull an upset or two in Sun Belt play this year. Will it be this week? I’m not sure, but the Bobcats are certainly good enough to keep it within 7.5.

CSD Pick: Troy 29, Texas State 27

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Texas State +7.5

Arkansas (1-1 SEC) @ #13 Auburn (1-1 SEC)
4 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Auburn -16.5

CSD Pick: Auburn 29, Arkansas 16

Pitt (3-1, 2-1 ACC) @ Boston College (2-1, 1-1 ACC)
4 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Pitt -5

CSD Pick: Pitt 26, Boston College 22

Kansas State (2-1, 2-0 Big 12) @ TCU (1-1, 1-1 Big 12)

Vegas Line: TCU -9.5

Both of these teams pulled upsets against teams thought to be at the top of the Big 12, both seem positioned to crack into the AP Top 25 with a victory, this game could have Big 12 title stakes. And yet, for some reason, it’s flying under the radar.

For TCU, QB Max Duggan has been great, but the defense, unlike many Gary Patterson teams, hasn’t lived up to par. However, I haven’t like Skylar Thompson this year, and I don’t think TCU’s defensive struggles matter against a K-State team that struggles to put up points and lost to Arkansas State earlier this year. Give me the Horned Frogs by a score.

CSD Pick: TCU 30, Kansas State 22

Middle Tennessee (0-4, 0-2 C-USA) @ FIU (0-1)
Vegas Line: FIU -4.5

CSD Pick: FIU 30, Middle Tennessee 25

#2 Alabama (2-0 SEC) @ Ole Miss (1-1 SEC)

Vegas Line: Alabama -24.5

Ok. I bet against Alabama last week, it didn’t work out. Let’s try it again. Ole Miss may have the best passing offense in the SEC, and while the Rebels’ defense might not get a single stop against Alabama’s first strings, I have a feeling that Lane Kiffin’s boys won’t stop trying to score on their end, even after the backups are in for Bama. Give me Kiffin, Matt Corral, and the Runnin’ Rebels to squeak out a good ol’ backdoor cover.

CSD Pick: Alabama 45, Ole Miss 27

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Ole Miss +24.5

Temple @ Navy (1-2, 1-0 American)
Vegas Line: Pick’em

We haven’t seen Temple play yet this year, but we have seen Navy play. They’ve been abysmal. Jump on this before the line changes.

CSD Pick: Temple 30, Navy 25

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Temple Pick’em

East Carolina (0-2, 0-1 American) @ USF (1-2, 0-1 American)
Vegas Line: USF -4

CSD Pick: USF 29, East Carolina 25

#7 Miami (3-0, 2-0 ACC) @ #1 Clemson (3-0, 2-0 ACC)

7:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Clemson -15.5

The game of the week might not be a game at all if Vegas is correct, as the #1 Clemson Tigers come into the ABC Primetime showdown as 15.5-point favorites against D’Eriq King and the Miami Hurricane. That line is bogus. The ‘Canes have been firing on all cylinders all year long, and they will come out to play in what will be the program’s biggest game in years. The ‘Canes are off a bye, Clemson looked shaky last week against Virginia, and I think this will be closer than 15.5… but Clemson will still win. The talent gap is just too wide. Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne are the best QB/RB duo in the nation, and they will lead the Tigers to a win, but again, closer than the experts think.

CSD Pick: Clemson 38, Miami 28

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Miami +15.5

Florida State (1-2, 0-2 ACC) @ #5 Notre Dame (2-0, 1-0 ACC)
7:30 PM ET, NBC
Vegas Line: Notre Dame -21.5

CSD Pick: Notre Dame 37, Florida State 17

UTEP (3-1) @ Louisiana Tech (2-1, 1-0 C-USA)
7:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Louisiana Tech -15

Louisiana Tech has been one of the more overrated teams in the country this year. The Bulldogs were awesome in 2019, but lost almost their entire starting lineup from last year’s team. A UTEP team on the upswing should easily cover 15.

CSD Pick: Louisiana Tech 31, UTEP 22

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – UTEP +15

Marshall (2-0) @ WKU (1-2, 1-0 C-USA)
7:30 PM ET, FSN/Stadium
Vegas Line: Marshall -4.5

Marshall will have a fire lit under them after being dropped from the AP Top 25 despite not losing a game. Expect the Thundering Herd to knock off their C-USA East rivals and continue to win in the leadup to their eventual showdown with UAB.

CSD Pick: Marshall 31, WKU 20

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Marshall -4.5

Mississippi State (1-1 SEC) @ Kentucky (0-2 SEC)

7:30 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Kentucky -2

Kentucky is a hell of a lot better than their 0-2 record indicates. The Wildcats are a solid squad that can run the ball among the best in the country, and while the pass defense is a concern, especially against Mississippi State, this UK team is just too good to start 0-3. I’ll take the ‘Cats.

CSD Pick: Kentucky 33, Mississippi State 27

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Kentucky -2

Charlotte (0-2, 0-1 C-USA) @ North Texas (1-2, 0-1 C-USA)
Vegas Line: Charlotte -2.5

I love the framework of this Charlotte team, and giving just 2.5 points against a North Texas squad that may be the worst in the nation is an opportunity too good to pass up.

CSD Pick: Charlotte 36, North Texas 28

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Charlotte -2.5

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