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  • College Football Schedule, Picks and Predictions For Every Game – Week 9

College Football Schedule, Picks and Predictions For Every Game – Week 9

#18 Penn State, fresh off of a loss to Indiana, looks to save their College Football Playoff hopes hosting #3 Ohio State in primetime. Also on the docket:

  • #10 Florida recovering from an intra-team COVID outbreak, hopes to stave off a challenge from Missouri
  • #5 Georgia, just one week prior to the big game against Florida, will travel to face a very good Kentucky team
  • The South’s Oldest Rivalry will renew in primetime: #15 North Carolina vs Virginia
  • #7 Cincinnati looks to secure their grip on the AAC Title race hosting Memphis
  • #16 Kansas State and #6 Oklahoma State hope to keep their unbeaten Big 12 records alive facing West Virginia and Texas
  • A couple of games between teams falling short of expectations and hoping to turn things around: LSU @ Auburn and Virginia Tech @ Louisville

2020 Prediction Stats

Straight Up: 159-55 (74%)
ATS Best Bets: 27-19 (+5.6 units)
ATS Total: 108-94-12 (+4.3 units)

Best Bets

Colorado State (+2) @ Fresno State – Thursday, 10 PM ET, CBSSN
Boston College (+31.5) @ #1 Clemson – 12 PM ET, ABC
Illinois (+7.5) vs Purdue – 12 PM ET, BTN
Baylor (+2.5) vs TCU – 3:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Iowa (-1.5) vs Northwestern – 3:30 PM ET, ESPN
#18 Penn State (+12.5) vs #3 Ohio State – 7:30 PM ET, ABC

Thursday, October 29th

South Alabama (3-2, 2-0 Sun Belt) @ Georgia Southern (3-2, 1-2 Sun Belt)
7:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Georgia Southern -6.5

CSD Pick: Georgia Southern 28, South Alabama 22

Colorado State (0-0, 0-0 MW) @ Fresno State (0-1, 0-1 MW)
Vegas Line: Fresno State -2

Fresno State didn’t impress in their opener against Hawai’i on Saturday, turning the ball over four times and getting thoroughly killed in the run game by a below-average Rainbow Warriors team. The Bulldogs will be at home again here, but I think the fact that CSU has tape on Fresno is a huge advantage, and that the Rams will win this one outright.

CSD Pick: Colorado State 26, Fresno State 23

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Colorado State +2

Friday, October 30th

Minnesota (0-1 Big Ten) @ Maryland (0-1 Big Ten)
7:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Minnesota -17.5

CSD Pick: Minnesota 34, Maryland 17

East Carolina (1-3, 1-2 American) @ Tulsa (2-1, 2-0 American)
Vegas Line: Tulsa -18.5

CSD Pick: Tulsa 36, East Carolina 21

Hawai’i (1-0, 1-0 MW) @ Wyoming (0-1, 0-1 MW)
9:45 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Hawai’i -2

CSD Pick: Wyoming 29, Hawai’i 26

Saturday, October 31st

Boston College (4-2, 3-2 ACC) @ #1 Clemson (6-0, 5-0 ACC)
Vegas Line: Clemson -31.5

Clemson is going to make the College Football Playoff, but they’ve been a little overrated in my view so far this year, and the data backs that up, as the Tigers are just 2-4 against the spread so far this season. Here, they are laying 31.5 against a Boston College squad that is significantly better than Syracuse, which gave the Tigers a minor scare last week. I like Clemson to win, of course, but Hafley will keep it close.

CSD Pick: Clemson 42, Boston College 16

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Boston College +31.5

#5 Georgia (3-1 SEC) @ Kentucky (2-3 SEC)

12 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Georgia -15.5

Two of the very best defenses in the nation will square off in this one, as Georgia looks to avoid being caught napping ahead of their big showdown with Florida next week. I like this Kentucky team more than most. The defense is excellent, perhaps the best in the nation at forcing turnovers, and I expect Georgia QB Stetson Bennett to make a couple of errors in this one, but the Kentucky offense is just too anemic to be considered competitive against the Bulldogs. UK’s passing game is the worst in the conference, and while the defense will keep this one within the point spread, it likely won’t be that close.

CSD Pick: Georgia 26, Kentucky 14

Memphis (3-1, 2-1 American) @ #7 Cincinnati (4-0, 2-0 American)

Vegas Line: Cincinnati -6

One of the more interesting games of the day comes from the American, where playoff longshots Cincinnati look to stave off a challenge from Memphis just one week after knocking off undefeated SMU. I do think Memphis is more talented than the Mustangs (despite the head-to-head result), but Cincy will be at home here. The defense is the best in the group of five, and I expect them to hold the great Memphis offense in check. Cincy QB Desmond Ridder will prove the doubters wrong, and the Bearcats will pick up another victory.

CSD Pick: Cincinnati 31, Memphis 23

Michigan State (0-1 Big Ten) @ #13 Michigan (1-0 Big Ten)
Vegas Line: Michigan -23.5

CSD Pick: Michigan 36, Michigan State 12

#16 Kansas State (4-1, 4-0 Big 12) @ West Virginia (3-2, 2-2 Big 12)

Vegas Line: West Virginia -3.5

A 3-2 team a 3.5-point favorite over the #16 team in the country? Really? Yea. Really. Despite the records, West Virginia has been the better team on the field this year, the Mountaineers are at home, and K-State starting QB Skylar Thompson is out with an injury, leading true freshman Will Howard to run the offense. I like the K-State offense despite the slow tempo – RB Deuce Vaughn is a star – but the West Virginia defense has been incredible this year (granted – against mostly subpar offenses, but isn’t that how you’re supposed to look against subpar offenses?). I like WVU QB Jarret Doege, and the home-field advantage for WVU will help shepherd them to a win.

CSD Pick: West Virginia 22, Kansas State 19

#20 Coastal Carolina (5-0, 3-0 Sun Belt) @ Georgia State (2-2, 1-2 Sun Belt)
Vegas Line: Coastal Carolina -1.5

CSD Pick: Coastal Carolina 29, Georgia State 28

#23 Iowa State (3-2, 3-1 Big 12) @ Kansas (0-5, 0-4 Big 12)
12 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Iowa State -28.5

CSD Pick: Iowa State 34, Kansas 6

UTSA (4-3, 2-1 C-USA) @ Florida Atlantic (1-1, 1-1 C-USA)
12 PM ET, Stadium/FSN
Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic -7.5

CSD Pick: Florida Atlantic 27, UTSA 20

Temple (1-2, 1-2 American) @ Tulane (2-4, 0-4 American)
Vegas Line: Tulane -1

CSD Pick: Tulane 26, Temple 23

Purdue (1-0 Big Ten) @ Illinois (0-1 Big Ten)
Vegas Line: Purdue -7.5

Oh god. I feel like I have less of a read on both of these teams after one game than I did before the season, but I’m going to stick with my preseason expectation that the Illini are certainly good enough to keep this within a touchdown at home. I like the Illinois pass rush, and the offense is solid as well. I’ll take the 7.5.

CSD Pick: Purdue 27, Illinois 22

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Illinois +7.5

Wake Forest (3-2, 2-2 ACC) @ Syracuse (1-5, 1-4 ACC)
12 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Wake Forest -10.5

CSD Pick: Wake Forest 32, Syracuse 20

UCF (3-2, 2-2 American) @ Houston (2-1, 2-0 American)
Vegas Line: UCF -3.5

CSD Pick: UCF 36, Houston 32

Rice (0-1, 0-1 C-USA) @ Southern Miss (1-4, 1-1 C-USA)
Vegas Line: Southern Miss -3.5

CSD Pick: Southern Miss 24, Rice 22

Troy (3-2, 1-1 Sun Belt) @ Arkansas State (3-3, 1-2 Sun Belt)
Vegas Line: Arkansas State -4.5

CSD Pick: Arkansas State 32, Troy 29

#4 Notre Dame (5-0, 4-0 ACC) @ Georgia Tech (2-4, 2-3 ACC)
3:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Notre Dame -20

CSD Pick: Notre Dame 34, Georgia Tech 17

#17 Indiana (1-0 Big Ten) @ Rutgers (1-0 Big Ten)
3:30 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Indiana -13

CSD Pick: Indiana 26, Rutgers 13

UAB (4-2, 2-0 C-USA) @ Louisiana Tech (3-3, 2-2 C-USA)
3:30 PM ET, FSN/Stadium
Vegas Line: UAB -9.5

CSD Pick: UAB 26, Louisiana Tech 14

TCU (1-3, 1-3 Big 12) @ Baylor (1-2, 1-2 Big 12)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: TCU -2.5

Neither one of these teams has done much to impress me the past couple of weeks, on offense especially – neither team has scored more than 16 points since October 3rd. This will be a slow, plodding game between two deeply flawed teams, but at the end of the day, I like Baylor QB Charlie Brewer to rebound from some poor performances and pick up a home win over TCU.

CSD Pick: Baylor 24, TCU 23

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Baylor +2.5

LSU (2-2 SEC) @ Auburn (3-2 SEC)

3:30 PM ET, CBS
Vegas Line: Auburn -1

Both of these teams remain difficult to get a read on. However, Auburn easily could be 1-4 right now, and Bo Nix has shown no signs of the inconsistencies that plagued his 2019 campaign going away. LSU had last week off to prepare for this one, and despite Myles Brennan’s status for this game being up in the air, I like LSU to pick up a road victory, because karma has to catch up to this Auburn team eventually, right?

CSD Pick: LSU 31, Auburn 30

Northwestern (1-0 Big Ten) @ Iowa (0-1 Big Ten)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Iowa -1.5

I’ve seen Northwestern floated as a possible upset pick here after their 43-3 victory over Maryland last week, but to those who like the ‘Cats I say… it was Maryland. Iowa is a significantly more talented team, they are at home here, and they should easily cover the 1.5. Fade the public in this one.

CSD Pick: Iowa 23, Northwestern 18

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Iowa -1.5

Texas (3-2, 2-2 Big 12) @ #6 Oklahoma State (4-0, 3-0 Big 12)

Vegas Line: Oklahoma State -3

The biggest game of the afternoon window comes from the Big 12 – as Texas will square off with Oklahoma State as a talented Longhorns squad hopes to turn their season around following a rough start. A big part of me wants to take Sam Ehlinger and the Longhorns to beat a Cowboy team that is not nearly as good as the #6 next to their name indicates, but the ‘Pokes are at home here, and they have a defense far superior to any Texas has played this year. Ehlinger will keep it close, but Spencer Sanders, Chuba Hubbard, and the Oklahoma State offense will do just enough to keep Okie State unbeaten.

CSD Pick: Oklahoma State 28, Texas 25

Ole Miss (1-4 SEC) @ Vanderbilt (0-3 SEC)
4 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Ole Miss -17

CSD Pick: Ole Miss 32, Vanderbilt 17

Appalachian State (3-1, 1-0 Sun Belt) @ UL Monroe (0-6, 0-3 Sun Belt)
Vegas Line: Appalachian State -31.5

CSD Pick: Appalachian State 42, UL Monroe 12

Virginia Tech (3-2, 3-2 ACC) @ Louisville (2-4, 1-4 ACC)

4 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech -2.5

This is a game between two teams significantly better than their records as Virginia Tech takes on Louisville. I still like this Louisville team a lot, despite the 2-4 record, they can run the ball very well and QB Malik Cunnigham took a big step forward last week, but even I can’t pick them to win this one. VT will be coming out angry here after an upset loss to Wake, and I expect Hendon Hooker and the Hokies to pick up the road W.

CSD Pick: Virginia Tech 30, Louisville 29

#25 Boise State (1-0, 1-0 MW) @ Air Force (1-1, 0-1 MW)
Vegas Line: Boise State -8.5

CSD Pick: Boise State 28, Air Force 18

Mississippi State (1-3 SEC) @ #2 Alabama (5-0 SEC)
Vegas Line: Alabama -32.5

CSD Pick: Alabama 48, Mississippi State 20

New Mexico (0-0, 0-0 MW) @ San Jose State (1-0, 1-0 MW)
7 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: San Jose State -13.5

CSD Pick: San Jose State 33, New Mexico 22

Charlotte (2-2) @ Duke (1-5)
Vegas Line: Duke -11

CSD Pick: Duke 32, Charlotte 22

#3 Ohio State (1-0 Big Ten) @ #18 Penn State (0-1 Big Ten)

7:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Ohio State -12.5

The game of the day comes from the Big Ten, as Penn State looks to keep their Playoff hopes alive hosting Ohio State. Last week’s game against Indiana was rough for Penn State from the outside looking in, but in all actuality, I think you can discount the loss somewhat. Penn State played like the MUCH better team all game and just got unlucky towards the end with a stupid decision from a player when the Nittany Lions had the game won and two successful two-point conversions from Indiana, the second of which was controversially held up. The Nittany Lions came into the game as 6.5 point favorites and just looking at the stats, they played up to that. My model’s post-game win expectancy (a formula that looks at all the stats and says how often a team should have won the game) gave Penn State an 86%. ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s version of a similar model put the Nittany Lons odds even higher, at 96%, so let’s not adjust our expectations too much based on one performance that was actually more bad luck than PSU actually playing poorly. Now, the Nittany Lions will run into a juggernaut Saturday: Ohio State. The Buckeyes are led by Heisman contending QB Justin Fields, who hit 20 of 21 passes last Saturday. The one incompletion was a receiver drop. Yeah, I guess you could say Fields is pretty good. I expect Fields and OSU to put up a bunch of points and win this game, but Penn State will easily cover 12.5. Lock it up.

CSD Pick: Ohio State 36, Penn State 30

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Penn State +12.5

Arkansas (2-2 SEC) @ #8 Texas A&M (3-1 SEC)
7:30 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Texas A&M -11.5

CSD Pick: Texas A&M 32, Arkansas 19

Missouri (2-2 SEC) @ #10 Florida (2-1 SEC)

7:30 PM ET, SEC Network Alternate
Vegas Line: Florida -12.5

This game is very interesting to me and seems to be flying under the radar a bit. Florida is a very good team, one that still controls their own destiny to a college football playoff appearance, but they run into a Missouri team that has played like a top-25 caliber squad the past couple of weeks. Now, I think Florida’s offense, led by Kyle Trask and Kyle Pitts, will be good enough to lead them to a victory here, but watch out for this one during Ohio State-Penn State, because an upset is not out of the question.

CSD Pick: Florida 35, Missouri 22

Navy (3-3, 3-1 American) @ #22 SMU (5-1, 2-1 American)
7:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: SMU -16

CSD Pick: SMU 37, Navy 25

#15 North Carolina (4-1, 4-1 ACC) @ Virginia (1-4, 1-4 ACC)

8 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: North Carolina -6.5

The South’s oldest rivalry has been played since 1892, but it has been dominated by Virginia recently, the Cavaliers have won three straight. This year’s UVa squad is a pretty far step back from last year’s squad that won the Coastal, but they are better than the 1-4 record indicates, QB Brennan Armstrong had to miss some time with injury, and in a rivalry game, you always throw the records out anyways. With that being said, the Virginia offense, even with Armstrong healthy, just isn’t enough to keep up with the UNC run game. I like Virginia, a squad excellent at forcing turnovers, to keep this one a lot closer than many think, but UNC to pull away late.

CSD Pick: North Carolina 36, Virginia 30

#24 Oklahoma (3-2, 2-2 Big 12) @ Texas Tech (2-3, 1-3 Big 12)
Vegas Line: Oklahoma -15.5

CSD Pick: Oklahoma 40, Texas Tech 27

Louisiana (4-1, 2-1 Sun Belt) @ Texas State (1-6, 1-2 Sun Belt)
Vegas Line: Louisiana -16.5

CSD Pick: Louisiana 35, Texas State 20

San Diego State (1-0, 1-0 MW) @ Utah State (0-1, 0-1 MW)
Vegas Line: San Diego State -7

CSD Pick: San Diego State 27, Utah State 20

Western Kentucky (2-4) @ #11 BYU (6-0)
10:15 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: BYU -28.5

CSD Pick: BYU 41, Western Kentucky 17

Nevada (1-0, 1-0 MW) @ UNLV (0-1, 0-1 MW)
10:30 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Nevada -10

CSD Pick: Nevada 33, UNLV 20

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