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College Football CSD Prime Computer Model Rankings After Week 3

Week Three is in the books. Louisiana and Oklahoma State survived tough tests as big favorites, Appalachian State fell to Marshall, and Miami controlled Louisville from start to finish. Let’s take a look at this week’s CSD Prime Computer Model Rankings.

Biggest Risers

Tulsa — +9
Boston College — +8
Troy — +7
Miami, Marshall, Liberty — +5

Tulsa’s defense looked dominant against an Oklahoma State offense thought to be potentially the best in the country, and thus, despite a 16-7 loss, the Golden Hurricane rockets up nine spots and lands in the top 50 at #47. Elsewhere, Notre Dame transfer QB Phil Jerkovic looked great for Boston College @ Duke, and Troy continued Sun Belt domination against Middle Tennessee. Hugh Freeze and Liberty upset a WKU team thought to be a Conference USA favorite, and Marshall cemented themselves as the Conference USA favorite with a 17-7 victory over App State. Finally, in the biggest game of the day, Miami never looked dominant, but they controlled Louisville from start to finish. The defense looked shaky, though, we’ll see if they can contain Florida State this week.

Biggest Fallers

Western Kentucky — -10
Duke — -8
Oklahoma State, Appalachian State — -6
Louisville, SMU, USF, Middle Tennessee — -5

The only thing really of note here not already covered is SMU dropping five spots after beating North Texas 65-35. The short answer? A top-35 team should not be letting up 35 points to a team that came into the week ranked as one of the three worst in the nation. The Mustangs barely cracked a 60 (out of 100) defensive grade on PFF for that performance, and they have their work cut out for them with Memphis in a few weeks.

A Lesson In Sample Size

After a week one victory @ #15 Iowa State, the Louisiana Rajin’ Cajuns only jumped up a few spots in this model, to 25th, while they rocketed to 19th in the AP poll. Why? A few reasons. First, the game wasn’t nearly as dominant as the 31-14 score indicated. The model gave ULL just a 67% post-game win-probability, much more in line with a one-score game. Additionally, it was one game, and the model is built to not overreact to a one-game sample size. Of course, it was proven correct this week. The Cajuns almost fumbled away their ranking, going down 21-7 to #64 Georgia State before eventually rallying to win in overtime, 34-31. That’s not the mark of a #19 team. So I warn you in the future, don’t overreact to one game.

RankTeamConf+/-YTD +/-
1AlabamaSEC00
2ClemsonACC00
3GeorgiaSEC00
4OklahomaBig 1200
5FloridaSEC00
6Texas A&MSEC00
7Louisiana StateSEC00
8AuburnSEC00
9TexasBig 1200
10Notre DameACC10
11North CarolinaACC11
12Central FloridaAAC45
13Virginia TechACC00
14CincinnatiAAC00
15TennesseeSEC01
16Oklahoma StateBig 12-6-5
17Miami (FL)ACC55
18KentuckySEC-12
19MemphisAAC00
20BaylorBig 1213
21Iowa StateBig 12-1-6
22MississippiSEC12
23LouisvilleACC-5-5
24PittsburghACC01
25Texas ChristianBig 1211
26Florida StateACC2-5
27VirginiaACC21
28LouisianaSun Belt-35
29South CarolinaSEC11
30Brigham YoungInd210
31West VirginiaBig 1203
32Mississippi StateSEC10
33Appalachian StateSun Belt-6-6
34Wake ForestACC31
35Alabama-BirminghamCUSA06
36Boston CollegeACC86
37Georgia TechACC-18
38MissouriSEC0-2
39Southern MethodistAAC-5-8
40HoustonAAC-1-3
41Kansas StateBig 120-12
42North Carolina StateACC-2-4
43MarshallCUSA57
44Arkansas StateSun Belt211
45Texas TechBig 12-2-6
46SyracuseACC12
47TulsaAAC910
48TempleAAC11
49NavyAAC1-6
50DukeACC-8-6
51ArkansasSEC00
52Florida AtlanticCUSA00
53TulaneAAC0-6
54ArmyInd18
55Western KentuckyCUSA-10-9
56Louisiana TechCUSA-2-2
57CharlotteCUSA0-1
58South AlabamaSun Belt314
59TroySun Belt76
60East CarolinaAAC-10
61Southern MississippiCUSA1-8
62VanderbiltSEC-2-1
63South FloridaAAC-5-4
64Georgia StateSun Belt00
65LibertyInd55
66Coastal CarolinaSun Belt-33
67RiceCUSA0-1
68Georgia SouthernSun Belt-3-10
69Florida InternationalCUSA-1-1
70Texas StateSun Belt45
71KansasBig 121-4
72North TexasCUSA31
73Texas-San AntonioCUSA-2-2
74Middle Tennessee StateCUSA-5-11
75Louisiana-MonroeSun Belt-2-1
76Texas-El PasoCUSA00

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