Week Three is in the books. Louisiana and Oklahoma State survived tough tests as big favorites, Appalachian State fell to Marshall, and Miami controlled Louisville from start to finish. Let’s take a look at this week’s CSD Prime Computer Model Rankings.
Tulsa — +9
Boston College — +8
Troy — +7
Miami, Marshall, Liberty — +5
Tulsa’s defense looked dominant against an Oklahoma State offense thought to be potentially the best in the country, and thus, despite a 16-7 loss, the Golden Hurricane rockets up nine spots and lands in the top 50 at #47. Elsewhere, Notre Dame transfer QB Phil Jerkovic looked great for Boston College @ Duke, and Troy continued Sun Belt domination against Middle Tennessee. Hugh Freeze and Liberty upset a WKU team thought to be a Conference USA favorite, and Marshall cemented themselves as the Conference USA favorite with a 17-7 victory over App State. Finally, in the biggest game of the day, Miami never looked dominant, but they controlled Louisville from start to finish. The defense looked shaky, though, we’ll see if they can contain Florida State this week.
Western Kentucky — -10
Duke — -8
Oklahoma State, Appalachian State — -6
Louisville, SMU, USF, Middle Tennessee — -5
The only thing really of note here not already covered is SMU dropping five spots after beating North Texas 65-35. The short answer? A top-35 team should not be letting up 35 points to a team that came into the week ranked as one of the three worst in the nation. The Mustangs barely cracked a 60 (out of 100) defensive grade on PFF for that performance, and they have their work cut out for them with Memphis in a few weeks.
A Lesson In Sample Size
After a week one victory @ #15 Iowa State, the Louisiana Rajin’ Cajuns only jumped up a few spots in this model, to 25th, while they rocketed to 19th in the AP poll. Why? A few reasons. First, the game wasn’t nearly as dominant as the 31-14 score indicated. The model gave ULL just a 67% post-game win-probability, much more in line with a one-score game. Additionally, it was one game, and the model is built to not overreact to a one-game sample size. Of course, it was proven correct this week. The Cajuns almost fumbled away their ranking, going down 21-7 to #64 Georgia State before eventually rallying to win in overtime, 34-31. That’s not the mark of a #19 team. So I warn you in the future, don’t overreact to one game.
|16||Oklahoma State||Big 12||-6||-5|
|21||Iowa State||Big 12||-1||-6|
|25||Texas Christian||Big 12||1||1|
|31||West Virginia||Big 12||0||3|
|33||Appalachian State||Sun Belt||-6||-6|
|41||Kansas State||Big 12||0||-12|
|42||North Carolina State||ACC||-2||-4|
|44||Arkansas State||Sun Belt||2||11|
|45||Texas Tech||Big 12||-2||-6|
|58||South Alabama||Sun Belt||3||14|
|64||Georgia State||Sun Belt||0||0|
|66||Coastal Carolina||Sun Belt||-3||3|
|68||Georgia Southern||Sun Belt||-3||-10|
|70||Texas State||Sun Belt||4||5|
|74||Middle Tennessee State||CUSA||-5||-11|