Note: I’ve decided to use the KenPom Top 25 just because I find it much more accurate than the AP, plus, its updated daily
These picks will be updated every day.
Monday, 11/19
#9Auburn (3-0) vs
Xavier (2-1) in Maui, HI – 2:30 PM ET, ESPN2 – Maui Invitational Semifinal
Prediction: Auburn
#1Duke (3-0) vs
San Diego State (2-0) in Maui, HI – 4:30 PM ET, ESPN2 – Maui Invitational Semifinal
Prediction: Duke
ATS Pick: San Diego State +16
Missouri State (3-0) vs
Nebraska (3-0) in Kansas City, MO – 7 PM ET, ESPNU – Hall of Fame Classic Semifinal
Prediction: Nebraska
Missouri (3-1) vs #19
Kansas State (4-0) in St. Thomas, Virgin Islands – 7:30 PM ET, FloHoops.com – Paradise Jam Championship
Prediction: Kansas State
ATS Pick: Missouri +7.5
Saint Mary’s (3-0) vs
Utah State (4-0) in Las Vegas, NV – 8:30 PM ET, ESPN3 – Main Event Heavyweight Bracket Semifinal
Prediction: Saint Mary’s
Arizona (3-0) vs
Iowa State (3-0) in Maui, HI – 9 PM ET, ESPNU – Maui Invitational Quarterfinal
Prediction: Iowa State
USC (2-1) vs #25
Texas Tech (3-0) in Kansas City, MO – 9:30 PM ET, ESPN2 – Hall of Fame Classic Semifinal
Prediction: USC
#21Mississippi State (3-0) vs
Arizona State (3-0) in Las Vegas, NV – 11 PM ET, ESPNU – Main Event Heavyweight Bracket Semifinal
Prediction: Mississippi State
#6Gonzaga (3-0) vs
Illinois (1-1) in Maui, HI – 11:30 PM ET, ESPN2 – Maui Invitational Quarterfinal
Prediction: Gonzaga
Tuesday, 11/20
#10
Auburn (4-0) vs #1
Duke (4-0) in Maui, HI – 8 PM ET, ESPN – Maui Invitational Semifinal
All eyes will be on Maui on Tuesday night as the #1 ranked Duke Blue Devils will face their toughest test of the season yet, the 4-0 Auburn Tigers. Auburn already holds wins over Washington and Xavier, although the latter game (which took place yesterday) needed overtime to decide a winner. This Auburn team has been excellent at forcing turnovers so far this year, but Duke ranks 14th in the nation in turnover percentage, so watch the turnover battle as an early indicator of if the Blue Devils are in trouble. While I do think this Auburn team is good, Duke has been a buzzsaw so far this year, winning their four games this year by an average of 30 points, including wins over Kentucky and San Diego State. RJ Barrett and Zion Williamson may bee the best freshman duo I’ve ever seen. Expect the Dukies to play up tempo as usual, and while it will be high scoring, Duke will take this one by a comfortable margin when all is said and done.
Prediction: Duke
#20
Texas Tech (4-0) vs #23
Nebraska (4-0) in Kansas City, MO – 9:30 PM ET, ESPN2 – Hall of Fame Classic Championship
Two teams largely flying under the national radar will get a chance for a win that would kickstart their year in the Hall of Fame Classic Championship. Nebraska’s only real test so far this season was Seton Hall back in the Gavitt Tipoff Games, and the Cornhuskers won that one by 23. In fact, Nebraska has been running up style points all year, winning the semifinal of this tournament against Missouri State by 23, and their two season opening buy games against SELA and MVSU by 52 and 69 points respectively. Texas Tech also played SELA and MVSU, not nearly putting up the numbers Nebraska did (TTU beat SELA by 19 and MVSU by 32), but the Red Raiders were tested in the opening round of this tournament against USC and commanded that one from start to finish. I will say, if Nebraska is able to run up the score in this one, we need to start talking about Big Red as a final four sleeper, but until then, I’ll take Chris Beard’s slow tempo, #6 ranked defense to force Nebraska into playing a game with a possession count in the mid-60s, something Nebraska hasn’t had to do this year. I’m not too confident in this one, but the Red Raiders force turnovers and bad shots (#7 in both opponent turnover % and eFG %) and they will do the same here and win a close one that might need overtime.
Prediction: Texas Tech
Georgia (3-1) vs #25
Clemson (4-0) in George Town, Cayman Islands – 1:30 PM ET, Stadium Facebook – Cayman Islands Classic Semifinal
Prediction: Clemson
Xavier (2-2) vs
San Diego State (2-1) in Maui, HI – 2:30 PM ET, ESPN2 – Maui Invitational Consolation Game
Prediction: Xavier
Iowa State (3-1) vs
Illinois (1-2) in Maui, HI – 4:30 PM ET, ESPN2 – Maui Invitational Consolation Game
Prediction: Iowa State
Georgia State (3-1) vs
Creighton (3-1) in George Town, Cayman Islands – 7:30 PM ET, Stadium Facebook – Cayman Islands Classic Semifinal
Prediction: Creighton
St. John’s (4-0) vs
VCU (4-0) in Brooklyn, NY – 7:30 PM ET, ESPN2 – Legends Classic Championship
Prediction: St. John’s
Santa Clara (0-3) vs
Minnesota (3-0) in Vancouver, BC – 9 PM ET, BTN – Vancouver Showcase
Prediction: Minnesota
ATS Pick: Santa Clara +17
Arizona (4-0) vs #6
Gonzaga (4-0) in Maui, HI – 10 PM ET, ESPN – Maui Invitational Semifinal
Prediction: Gonzaga
Texas A&M (1-3) vs
Washington (3-1) in Vancouver, BC – 11:30 PM ET, ESPN2 – Vancouver Showcase
Prediction: Washington
ATS Pick: Washington -3
Wednesday, 11/21
#1
Duke (5-0) vs #6
Gonzaga (5-0) in Maui, HI – 5 PM ET, ESPN – Maui Invitational Championship
Duke remains #1 in the country after their toughest test yet against Auburn. The game was never really in doubt as the Blue Devils were in control from start to finish, never trailing, but Auburn put up great fight coming back from down 33-16 towards the end of the first half to cut the Blue Devils’ lead to six by the end of the game. Marques Bolden shot 4-5 from the field and finished with 11 points, nine rebounds, and SEVEN (!!!) blocks. Gonzaga, which ended up winning by 17 against Arizona, actually struggled a lot more than Duke did, trailing 50-37 at one point before rallying to win. I really liked the fight that Gonzaga showed in the comeback W, but if you get down 13 points to Duke, you’re not coming back. I just don’t have the faith in the Zags at the moment to pull the upset. Give me Duke in a high scoring shootout.
Prediction: Duke
Oklahoma (3-0) vs
Florida (2-1) in Nassau, Bahamas – 12 PM ET, ESPN – Battle 4 Atlantis Quarterfinal
Prediction: Oklahoma
Stanford (2-1) vs #16
Wisconsin (3-0) in Nassau, Bahamas – 2 PM ET, ESPN – Battle 4 Atlantis Quarterfinal
Prediction: Wisconsin
San Diego State (3-1) vs
Iowa State (4-1) in Maui, HI – 2:30 PM ET, ESPN2 – Maui Invitational 5th Place Game
Prediction: Iowa State
Louisville (3-0) vs #9
Tennessee (3-0) in Brooklyn, NY – 5 PM ET, ESPN2 – NIT Season Tip-Off Semifinal
Prediction: Tennessee
Washington (4-1) vs
Minnesota (4-0) in Vancouver, BC – 6:30 PM ET, BTN – Vancouver Showcase
Prediction: Minnesota
Marquette (3-1) vs #2
Kansas (3-0) in Brooklyn, NY – 7 PM ET, ESPN2 – NIT Season Tip-Off Semifinal
Prediction: Kansas
Dayton (3-0) vs
Butler (3-0) in Nassau, Bahamas – 7 PM ET, ESPNews – Battle 4 Atlantis Quarterfinal
Prediction: Butler
Creighton (4-1) vs #20
Clemson (5-0) in George Town, Cayman Islands – 7:30 PM ET, Stadium Facebook – Cayman Islands Classic Championship
Prediction: Clemson
Saint Mary’s (3-1) vs #25
Mississippi State (3-1) in Las Vegas, NV – 8:30 PM ET, bd Global Sports – Main Event Heavyweight Bracket Third Place Game
Prediction: Mississippi State
Xavier (2-3) vs
Illinois (1-3) in Maui, HI – 9 PM ET, ESPNU – Maui Invitational 7th Place Game
Prediction: Xavier
Middle Tennessee (3-1) vs #4
Virginia (3-0) in Nassau, Bahamas – 9:30 PM ET, ESPN2 – Battle 4 Atlantis Quarterfinal
Prediction: Virginia
Arizona State (4-0) vs
Utah State (5-0) in Las Vegas, NV – 11 PM ET, ESPNU – Main Event Heavyweight Bracket Championship
Prediction: Utah State
#10Auburn (4-1) vs
Arizona (4-1) in Maui, HI – 11:30 PM ET, ESPN2 – Maui Invitational Third Place Game
Prediction: Auburn
Thursday, 11/22
#14Wisconsin (4-0) vs
Oklahoma (4-0) in Nassau, Bahamas – 1:30 PM ET, ESPN – Battle 4 Atlantis Semifinal
Prediction: Wisconsin
La Salle (0-4) vs #22
Miami (3-0) in Fullerton, CA – 2:30 PM ET, ESPNU – Wooden Legacy Quarterfinal
Prediction: Miami
#4Virginia (4-0) vs
Dayton (4-0) in Nassau, Bahamas – 3:30 PM ET, ESPN – Battle 4 Atlantis Semifinal
Prediction: Virginia
Northwestern (3-0) vs
Fresno State (1-1) in Fullerton, CA – 4:30 PM ET, ESPNU – Wooden Legacy Quarterfinal
Prediction: Northwestern
Stanford (2-2) vs
Florida (2-2) in Nassau, Bahamas – 7 PM ET, ESPN2 – Battle 4 Atlantis Consolation Game
Prediction: Florida
Texas (4-0) vs #3
North Carolina (5-0) in Las Vegas, NV – 7:30 PM ET, FS1 – Las Vegas Invitational Semifinal
Prediction: North Carolina
ATS Pick: Texas +7
Seton Hall (1-2) vs
Grand Canyon (3-1) in Fullerton, CA – 9 PM ET, ESPN3 – Wooden Legacy Quarterfinal
Prediction: Seton Hall
Middle Tennessee (3-2) vs
Butler (3-1) in Nassau, Bahamas – 9:30 PM ET, ESPNU – Battle 4 Atlantis Consolation Game
Prediction: Butler
#11Michigan State (3-1) vs
UCLA (4-0) in Las Vegas, NV – 10 PM ET, FS1 – Las Vegas Invitational Semifinal
Prediction: UCLA
Hawai’i (3-1) vs
Utah (2-1) in Fullerton, CA – 11:30 PM ET, ESPN2 – Wooden Legacy Quarterfinal
Prediction: Utah
ATS Pick: Hawai’i +9.5
Friday, 11/23
#3
Virginia (5-0) vs #12
Wisconsin (5-0) in Nassau, Bahamas – 2 PM ET, ESPN – Battle 4 Atlantis Championship
This is going to be a low scoring brawl between the slowest team in the country and the fourth slowest team in the country, but given that both teams are in the top 15 in KenPom, maybe that slow tempo works. If the fastest team played the fourth fastest team we’d be looking at a Savannah State-Marshall matchup, not exactly the same level of national stakes. For those that don’t know, I’m a Virginia fan, which makes this even harder for me, but I really like this Wisconsin team. When you adjust for their tempo, the Badgers actually are a top 15 offense in the nation, and they won their first two games of this tournament by a combined 36 points. Virginia, on the other hand, really struggled with a Dayton team that is probably NIT bound. The Cavaliers were either trailing or leading by single digits for the entirety of the game, and Dayton found themselves down just four with under a minute to play. I don’t know if its the ceiling height of the weird ballroom they play in or what, but I can’t pick Virginia to beat a top 15 team after that performance, give me Wisconsin to pull the upset.
Prediction: Wisconsin
#11
Tennessee (4-0) vs #2
Kansas (4-0) in Brooklyn, NY – 9 PM ET, ESPN2 – NIT Season Tip-Off Championship
Kansas is maybe the most balanced team in the nation, ranking fourth in both offensive and defensive efficiency via KenPom. However, despite their 4-0 record, Kansas hasn’t quite lived up to my expectations (they were my preseason champion) and are 0-4 against the spread this year (Although I should say both the Marquette and Michigan State games were like a point off). Speaking of that Marquette game, the Jayhawks looked really shaky at times against the Golden Eagles, at one point trailing 42-30 before rallying to a nine-point victory. If you fall behind like that against Tennessee, you aren’t going to be able to rally. This UT team has been cerebral this year, winning every game this year by double digits, including Louisville in the semifinal of this tournament. Grant Williams is the current leader for kPOY by a wide margin, and I think he leads the Vols to an upset win.
Prediction: Tennessee
Dayton (4-1) vs
Oklahoma (4-1) in Nassau, Bahamas – 11:30 AM ET, ESPN2 – Battle 4 Atlantis Third Place Game
Prediction: Oklahoma
ATS Pick: Oklahoma -4.5
#21Villanova (3-2) vs
Oklahoma State (3-1) in Orlando, FL – 11:30 AM ET, ESPN – Advocare Invitational Semifinal
Prediction: Oklahoma State
ATS Pick: Oklahoma State +5.5
#20Miami (4-0) vs
Fresno State (2-1) in Fullerton, CA – 2 PM ET, ESPN2 – Wooden Legacy Semifinal
Prediction: Miami
#4North Carolina (5-1) vs
UCLA (4-1) in Las Vegas, NV – 4 PM ET, FOX – Las Vegas Invitational Third Place Game
Prediction: North Carolina
LSU (5-0) vs #9
Florida State (4-0) in Orlando, FL – 4:30 PM ET, ESPN2 – Advocare Invitational Semifinal
Prediction: Florida State
Marshall (4-0) @
Maryland (5-0) – 6 PM ET, BTN
Prediction: Maryland
#24Texas (5-0) vs #10
Michigan State (4-1) in Las Vegas, NV – 6:30 PM ET, FOX – Las Vegas Invitational Championship
Prediction: Michigan State
Louisville (3-1) vs
Marquette (3-2) in Brooklyn, NY – 7 PM ET, ESPN2 – NIT Season Tip-Off Third Place Game
Prediction: Marquette
George Mason (2-3) vs
Cincinnati (3-1) in Niceville, FL – 7 PM ET, CBSSN – Emerald Coast Classic Semifinal
Prediction: Cincinnati
ATS Pick: George Mason +10.5
Baylor (3-1) vs
Ole Miss (2-1) in Niceville, FL – 9:30 PM ET, CBSSN – Emerald Coast Classic Semifinal
Prediction: Baylor
Butler (4-1) vs
Florida (3-2) in Nassau, Bahamas – 9:30 PM ET, ESPNU – Battle 4 Atlantis Fifth Place Game
Prediction: Florida
Seton Hall (2-2) vs
Hawai’i (4-1) in Fullerton, CA – 11:30 PM ET, ESPN2 – Wooden Legacy Semifinal
Prediction: Hawai’i
Saturday, 11/24
DePaul (3-0) @
Notre Dame (4-1) – 12 PM ET, ESPN3
Prediction: DePaul
Houston (3-0) @
BYU (5-1) – 6 PM ET, byuTV
Prediction: Houston
Cincinnati (4-1) vs
Ole Miss (3-1) in Niceville, FL – 7 PM ET, CBSSN – Emerald Coast Classic Championship
Prediction: Ole Miss
Sunday, 11/25
#16Villanova (4-2) vs #11
Florida State (5-0) in Orlando, FL – 1 PM ET, ESPN – Advocare Invitational Championship
Prediction: Florida State
Oklahoma State (3-2) vs
LSU (5-1) in Orlando, FL – 4 PM ET, ESPN2 – Advocare Invitational Third Place Game
Prediction: LSU
#21Miami (5-0) vs
Seton Hall (3-2) in Fullerton, CA – 10:30 PM ET, ESPN2 – Wooden Legacy Championship
Prediction: Miami