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  • College Football Picks, Schedule, Analysis Week 12

College Football Picks, Schedule, Analysis Week 12

A pair of potential Big Ten division title games take center stage as #9 Indiana faces #3 Ohio State and #10 Wisconsin takes on #19 Northwestern. Also on the slate:

  • 0-4 Penn State looks to get their first win of the year hosting Iowa
  • #7 Cincinnati hopes to keep their playoff hopes alive @ UCF
  • LSU takes on Arkansas in an SEC West battle
  • #1 Alabama, which has had the last two weeks off, hopes to avoid being caught sleeping against Kentucky
  • We’ll see what a Will Muschamp-less South Carolina looks like against Missouri
  • Virginia Tech takes on Pitt in a classic ACC Coastal battle (even though there is no Coastal this year)
  • BEDLAM in primetime: #14 Oklahoma State @ #18 Oklahoma

2020 Prediction Stats

Straight Up: 262-88 (75%)
ATS Best Bets: 34-28-1 (55%)
ATS Total: 160-163-27 (50%)

Best Bets

Akron (+27) @ Kent State – Tuesday, 8 PM ET, ESPN
Central Michigan (-1) vs Western Michigan – Wednesday, 7 PM ET, ESPN2
Minnesota (+3) vs Purdue – Friday, 7:30 PM ET, BTN
Illinois (+15) @ Nebraska – 12 PM ET, FS1
Georgia Southern (+5) @ Army – 12 PM ET, CBSSN
#7 Cincinnati (-3) @ UCF – 3:30 PM ET, ESPN
Nevada (+2) vs San Diego State – 3:30 PM ET, CBS
Michigan (-7.5) @ Rutgers – 7:30 PM ET, BTN

All projected scores are based off of 1,000 simulations of each game in the CSD Prime computer model, which is why the scores may look a little funky

Tuesday, November 17th

Buffalo (2-0 MAC) @ Bowling Green (0-2 MAC)
7 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Buffalo -30

CSD Pick: Buffalo 40, Bowling Green 16

Akron (0-2 MAC) @ Kent State (2-0 MAC)
8 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Kent State -27

Akron is one of the worst teams in college football, but Kent State probably shouldn’t be a four touchdown favorite against anybody. The Golden Flashes went 2-10 just two short years ago, and I see Akron covering this monstrous spread on the road.

CSD Pick: Kent State 33, Akron 20

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Akron +27

Wednesday, November 18th

Northern Illinois (0-2 MAC) @ Ball State (1-1 MAC)
7 PM ET, ESPNews
Vegas Line: Ball State -9.5

CSD Pick: Ball State 35, Northern Illinois 22

Toledo (1-1 MAC) @ Eastern Michigan (2-0 MAC)
7 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Toledo -7.5

CSD Pick: Toledo 30, Eastern Michigan 25

Western Michigan (2-0 MAC) @ Central Michigan (2-0 MAC)
7 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Central Michigan -1

Two of the last unbeaten teams remaining in college football will square off Wednesday night in what may be a de facto MAC West title game. I like the CMU defense as the best unit on the field, with the home edge, to power the Chippewas to a win.

CSD Pick: Central Michigan 34, Western Michigan 29

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Central Michigan -1

Thursday, November 19th

Tulane (5-4, 2-4 AAC) @ #25 Tulsa (4-1, 4-0 AAC)
7:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Tulsa -6.5

CSD Pick: Tulsa 31, Tulane 27

Friday, November 20th

Syracuse (1-7, 1-6 ACC) @ Louisville (2-6, 1-6 ACC)
7 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Louisville -17

CSD Pick: Louisville 38, Syracuse 18

Purdue (2-1 Big Ten) @ Minnesota (1-3 Big Ten)
7:30 PM ET, BTN
Vegas Line: Purdue -3

Purdue’s two wins this year have been by a combined 11 points against Iowa and Illinois, I actually think that the wrong team is favored in this one. The Boilermakers’ run defense is suspect at best, and Mo Ibrahim is up there with the best backs in the country. Give me Minnesota outright.

CSD Pick: Minnesota 29, Purdue 28

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Minnesota +3

UMass (0-2) @ Florida Atlantic (4-1)
8 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic -30

CSD Pick: Florida Atlantic 37, UMass 15

New Mexico (0-3, 0-3 MW) @ Air Force (1-2, 0-2 MW)
9:30 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Air Force -7.5

CSD Pick: Air Force 33, New Mexico 22

Saturday, November 21st

#9 Indiana (4-0 Big Ten) @ #3 Ohio State (3-0 Big Ten)

12 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Ohio State -19.5

It has been a nice year for Indiana. A 4-0 start including wins against Penn State, Michigan, and Michigan State has led to a top-ten ranking for the Hoosiers, but Indiana will run into a tough test, with a road affair against #3 Ohio State. I like Indiana QB Michael Penix, but he’s not Justin Fields. Unfortunately for IU fans, I expect OSU to jump out to a big lead early and never look back. Give me the Buckeyes, big.

CSD Pick: Ohio State 39, Indiana 23

#4 Clemson (7-1, 6-1 ACC) @ Florida State (2-6, 1-6 ACC) – CANCELED
12 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Clemson -33

CSD Pick: Clemson 43, Florida State 18

#6 Florida (5-1 SEC) @ Vanderbilt (0-6 SEC)
12 PM ET, ABC (was ESPN)
Vegas Line: Florida -30.5

CSD Pick: Florida 45, Vanderbilt 16

Appalachian State (6-1, 4-0 Sun Belt) @ #15 Coastal Carolina (7-0, 5-0 Sun Belt)
12 PM ET, ESPN (was ESPN2)
Vegas Line: Coastal Carolina -4

CSD Pick: Coastal Carolina 31, Appalachian State 28

Stephen F. Austin (6-3) @ Memphis (4-2)
12 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Memphis -28.5

CSD Pick: Memphis 53, Stephen F. Austin 6

Illinois (1-3 Big Ten) @ Nebraska (1-2 Big Ten)
12 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Nebraska -15

Illinois looked solid last week in an upset win over a decent Rutgers team. The Illini can’t throw the ball to save their lives, but the run game looked amazing, and they should be able to keep within 15 of a fledgling Nebraska team.

CSD Pick: Nebraska 31, Illinois 21

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Illinois +15

East Carolina (1-6, 1-5 AAC) @ Temple (1-5, 1-5 AAC)
12 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Temple -2

CSD Pick: Temple 27, East Carolina 23

Georgia Southern (6-2) @ Army (6-2)
12 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Army -5

The wrong team is favored here. Both of these teams run the option well, they both have similarly rated defenses, the only difference is that Georgia Southern can actually throw the ball with QB Shai Werts. That flexibility leads me to pick Georgia Southern straight up.

CSD Pick: Georgia Southern 25, Army 24

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Georgia Southern +5

LSU (2-3 SEC) @ Arkansas (3-4 SEC)

12 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Arkansas -1

These are both good teams that would probably have winning records if they played in the Big 12 or ACC, but have struggled against extraordinarily difficult schedules. Clearly, LSU is the more talented team, but Arkansas feels a lot more well-rounded, and LSU QB Myles Brennan is likely out for the year with an injury, not to mention COVID issues that the Tigers are likely to face. I expect Feleipe Franks to get the job done and for the ‘Hogs to get to four wins – something unfathomable in the preseason.

CSD Pick: Arkansas 32, LSU 31

Arkansas State (3-5, 1-4 Sun Belt) @ Texas State (1-9, 1-5 Sun Belt)
12 PM ET, ESPN2 (was ESPN3 at 2 PM ET)
Vegas Line: Arkansas State -6

CSD Pick: Arkansas State 33, Texas State 30

FIU (0-4, 0-2 C-USA) @ Western Kentucky (3-6, 2-3 C-USA)
2 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky -9.5

CSD Pick: Western Kentucky 25, FIU 13

Rice (1-1, 1-1 C-USA) @ North Texas (2-3, 1-2 C-USA)
2 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: North Texas -2

CSD Pick: North Texas 29, Rice 26

North Alabama (0-3) @ #8 BYU (8-0)
3 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: BYU -46

CSD Pick: BYU 56, North Alabama 5

UTSA (5-4, 3-2 C-USA) @ Southern Miss (2-6, 1-3 C-USA)
3 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: UTSA -8

CSD Pick: UTSA 29, Southern Miss 22

#7 Cincinnati (7-0, 5-0 AAC) @ UCF (5-2, 4-2 AAC)

3:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Cincinnati -3

Despite the two losses, this UCF team is really good. That being said, they aren’t Cincinnati good. The Bearcats, desperate to stick their nose in the College Football Playoff discussion, have been blowing the doors off of their foes by seemingly bigger margins every week. Desmond Ridder has been excellent, especially the last four weeks, during which he has accounted for 17 touchdowns. Give me Cincy, covering the three points easily as they look to give the committee a good impression heading into the reveal of the first set of rankings on Tuesday.

CSD Pick: Cincinnati 40, UCF 34

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Cincinnati -3

#10 Wisconsin (2-0 Big Ten) @ #19 Northwestern (4-0 Big Ten)

3:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Wisconsin -7

It has been a nice 4-0 start for Northwestern, I love the job that Pat Fitzgerald has done in Evanston, but this is still a Northwestern-style and Northwestern-caliber offense, even with Peyton Ramsey at the helm. Wisconsin has played to a borderline Alabama/Ohio State level so far this year, granted, in a two game sample size, but I’ve loved what I’ve seen from Graham Mertz and the Badgers thus far. Give me Wisconsin. Big.

CSD Pick: Wisconsin 30, Northwestern 21

UCLA (1-1 Pac-12) @ Oregon (2-0 Pac-12)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Oregon -14

CSD Pick: Oregon 38, UCLA 24

Middle Tennessee (2-6) @ Troy (4-3)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Troy -12.5

CSD Pick: Troy 33, Middle Tennessee 22

Iowa (2-2 Big Ten) @ Penn State (0-4 Big Ten)

3:30 PM ET, BTN
Vegas Line: Iowa -2.5

Can Penn State get a win on the board? For Nittany Lion fans, I sure hope so, but even at home, I don’t see James Franklin’s group picking up their first W of the year. The team seems unmotivated, and they run into a physical, hard-nosed Iowa team that may also just straight up be better. I’ll take the Hawkeyes to drop Penn State to 0-5.

CSD Pick: Iowa 24, Penn State 23

San Diego State (3-1, 3-1 MW) @ Nevada (4-0, 4-0 MW)
3:30 PM ET, CBS
Vegas Line: San Diego State -2

Hey, the Mountain West is getting a CBS game! That’s pretty cool. I think the wrong team is favored here, and for the excellent Carson Strong to lead Nevada to 5-0, but let’s just appreciate this moment a little – the Mountain West getting on national tv without Boise State, it is a big moment for the conference, so congrats to both of these schools.

CSD Pick: Nevada 27, San Diego State 26

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Nevada +2

Cal (0-1 Pac-12) @ Oregon State (0-2 Pac-12)
3:30 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Cal -5.5

CSD Pick: Cal 27, Oregon State 22

Kentucky (3-4 SEC) @ #1 Alabama (6-0 SEC)

4 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Alabama -29.5

I like Kentucky a lot, but come on. Alabama rolls. The Tide are the best team in the country – although I would not be surprised if Notre Dame usurps them for #1 in the first College Football Playoff rankings when they are revealed on Tuesday.

CSD Pick: Alabama 45, Kentucky 19

Kansas State (4-3, 4-2 Big 12) @ #17 Iowa State (5-2, 5-1 Big 12)
4 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Iowa State -11

CSD Pick: Iowa State 30, Kansas State 22

Abilene Christian (1-4) @ Virginia (3-4)
4 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Virginia -35.5

CSD Pick: Virginia 40, Abilene Christian 11

Virginia Tech (4-4, 4-3 ACC) @ Pitt (4-4, 3-4 ACC)

4 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech -3

Both of these teams have been just shy of great seasons but have come up short in big games multiple times. I’m going to keep betting on Virginia Tech, despite the fact that it hasn’t worked out for me the past two weeks. The Hokies could easily be 7-1 right now, and even on the road, I expect the high-powered offense to be too much for Pitt to handle.

CSD Pick: Virginia Tech 31, Pitt 30

Tennessee (2-4 SEC) @ #23 Auburn (4-2 SEC)
7 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Auburn -11.5

CSD Pick: Auburn 33, Tennessee 20

San Jose State (4-0, 4-0 MW) @ Fresno State (3-1, 3-1 MW) – CANCELED
7 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: San Jose State -2.5

CSD Pick: San Jose State 33, Fresno State 32

Mississippi State (2-4 SEC) @ #13 Georgia (4-2 SEC)
7:30 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Georgia -24

CSD Pick: Georgia 33, Mississippi State 13

#14 Oklahoma State (5-1, 4-1 Big 12) @ #18 Oklahoma (5-2, 4-2 Big 12)

7:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Oklahoma -9.5

Bedlam gets the primetime spot on ABC, as Oklahoma looks likely to effectively end the Big 12’s playoff hopes by handing Oklahoma State the Cowboys’ second loss of the season. I like the Oklahoma State defense, but Spencer Rattler and the OU offense has found their groove in recent weeks, and I don’t have faith in Oklahoma State, which scored just 17 last time out against West Virginia, to keep up. I’ll take the Sooners by double digits.

CSD Pick: Oklahoma 36, Oklahoma State 25

#21 Liberty (8-0) @ NC State (5-3)
7:30 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: NC State -3

CSD Pick: NC State 33, Liberty 30

Missouri (2-3 SEC) @ South Carolina (2-5 SEC)

7:30 PM ET, SEC Network Alternate
Vegas Line: Missouri -5

South Carolina has moved on from head coach Will Muschamp (Louisiana HC Billy Napier looks like the early frontrunner), and now they look to finish the season strong, beginning with a home game against Missouri. I’m not sure to expect from this one, often times you see a “dead cat bounce” when teams move on from their coach midway through the season, but South Carolina has also had to deal with some players leaving the team after the announcement. However, the energy of a coaching change, the home field advantage, and the fact that the Gamecocks are actually a very talented team leads me to pick them to pull the straight up upset here.

CSD Pick: South Carolina 26, Missouri 22

Michigan (1-3 Big Ten) @ Rutgers (1-3 Big Ten)
7:30 PM ET, BTN
Vegas Line: Michigan -7.5

Alright Michigan, this is your last stand. The Wolverines have beaten Rutgers by over 40 points on average the past few years, and they’re only laying 7.5 here. Against my better judgement, I’m pulling the trigger, give me the maize and blue.

CSD Pick: Michigan 34, Rutgers 17

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Michigan -7.5

Arizona (0-1 Pac-12) @ Washington (1-0 Pac-12)
8 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Washington -11.5

CSD Pick: Washington 32, Arizona 20

#20 USC (2-0 Pac-12) @ Utah (0-0 Pac-12)
10:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: USC -3.5

CSD Pick: USC 31, Utah 26

Washington State (1-1 Pac-12) @ Stanford (0-2 Pac-12) – CANCELED
10:30 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Stanford -2.5

CSD Pick: Stanford 30, Washington State 29

Boise State (3-1, 3-0 MW) @ Hawai’i (2-2, 2-2 MW)
11 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Boise State -13

CSD Pick: Boise State 37, Hawai’i 25

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