Week Ten College Football Picks and ATS Best Bets

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Straight Up 

Week One: 29-6 (83%)
Week Two: 29-6 (83%)
Week Three: 26-9 (74%)
Week Four: 27-8 (77%)
Week Five: 29-6 (83%)
Week Six: 27-8 (77%)
Week Seven: 26-9 (74%)
Week Eight: 26-9 (74%)
Week Nine: 23-12 (67%)
Season: 242-73 (77%)

ATS Best Bets

Week One: 3-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 200$)
Week Two: 8-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 700$)
Week Three: 6-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 500$)
Week Four: 3-5 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve lost 200$)
Week Five: 4-3 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 100$)
Week Six: 3-2 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 100$)
Week Seven: 4-2 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 200$)
Week Eight: 2-4 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve lost 200$)
Week Nine: 4-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 300$)
Season: 37-20 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 1,700$)

Week Ten Best Bets

Penn State (-10) over Michigan State – 12PM ET, Fox
Washington (-17) over Oregon – 10PM ET, FS1

Tier One

#7Penn State (7-1) @ #24Michigan State (6-2) – 12PM ET, Fox

I dropped Michigan State all the way out of my top 25, and I do regret leaving USF in over the Spartans, but any hopes of a College Football Playoff berth went down the drain. Michigan State still controls its own destiny in the hunt for a Big Ten title. Penn State does not, but I only dropped the Nittany Lions to #5 in my rankings, because if the two teams played head-to-head, there is no way I would take Oklahoma over Penn State, no matter who beat Ohio State and who didn’t. This game isn’t going to be close. Saquon Barkley and the rest of this Penn State team are going to be motivated following the loss (on the road to a top four team), and Michigan State lost to a Northwestern team that can only be described as “meh”. If this game was within two touchdowns it would be a surprise to me.

Prediction: Penn State 35, Michigan State 17 (Penn State -10 is a BEST BET for Week Ten)

#4Clemson (7-1) @ #20NC State (6-2) – 3:30PM ET, ABC

First of all, why is Clemson #4? Really, #4? A team that lost to Syracuse is #4. Don’t feed me the Kelly Bryant injury nonsense, he played half the game, and Clemson was losing when he left anyway. Clemson is still a very good team that just had a bad night, and I had them at #6, but top four seems excessive to me. NC State is a team I’m having a hard time figuring out. The Wolfpack got killed last week by the #3 team, and they are at home against Clemson with an opportunity for a season-changing win and a spot in the ACC Title game. This screams trap game to me, but assuming Kelly Bryant is back to 100%, which looked like the case last week, I can’t pick against a team with this good of a defense. It’ll be low scoring, but I think the Tigers get the job done in a close one.

Prediction: Clemson 31, NC State 23

#5Oklahoma (7-1) @ #11Oklahoma State (7-1) – 4PM ET, Fox Sports 1

I had both of these teams two spots away from the committee. Oklahoma 7th (yes, behind Ohio State, because a season is more than one game), and Oklahoma State 9th (yes, ahead of TCU, because a season is more than one game). This is essentially a playoff elimination game, the loser has no shot, and the winner controls their own destiny to at worst a top-five spot, depending on what happens elsewhere. I’m taking Oklahoma State in this game because I can’t trust Oklahoma, the same reason I have the Sooners outside of my top six, they’ve been lucky this year. Games against Baylor, Kansas State and Texas all came down to the final minutes, OU very well could be 4-4 right now based on how they played in those games. I’m taking the home team, and the Mason Rudolph-led ‘Pokes.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 45, Oklahoma 42

#13Virginia Tech (7-1) @ #10Miami (7-0) – 8PM ET, ABC

I put Virginia Tech ahead of Miami in my top 25 this week, and I’m going to stand behind that ranking and pick the Hokies to go into Coral Gables and pick up a road win over a top ten team. Virginia Tech, while not having played any top-tier team since West Virginia, has dominated each and every game this year outside of that Clemson game. That includes a game against a resurgent Boston College team that won @ Louisville, @ 5-1 Virginia, and against Florida State in three straight weeks. Miami, while not having a one in the loss column, has done the opposite. The last four games have all been close one-possession wins that come down to the wire, including last week against 1-8 North Carolina. This is the week that the luck runs out.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 30, Miami 27

#19LSU (6-2) @ #2Alabama (8-0) – 8PM ET, CBS

Something happened after the Troy game that lit a fire under this Ed Orgeron team, and they have been unstoppable ever since, but now they face the immovable object, the Alabama Crimson Tide. We all hear the news stories about how Nick Saban doesn’t pay attention to the news, but really, you have to think there is at least a little bit of extra motivation now that the Tide lost that little number one next to their name. LSU has been playing quality defense for the past month, but come on guys, its Alabama. LSU almost pulled the upset in this game last year, I don’t think it will be that close again in 2017. Give me Jalen Hurts and Alabama by three touchdowns.

Prediction: Alabama 38, LSU 17

Tier Two

#9Wisconsin (8-0) @ Indiana (3-5) – 12PM ET, ABC

Prediction: Wisconsin 38, Indiana 20

#14Auburn (6-2) @ Texas A&M (5-3) – 12PM ET, ESPN

Prediction: Auburn 34, Texas A&M 21

South Carolina (6-2) @ #1Georgia (8-0) – 3:30PM ET, CBS

Prediction: Georgia 37, South Carolina 14

Wake Forest (5-3) @ #3Notre Dame (7-1) – 3:30PM ET, NBC

Prediction: Notre Dame 33, Wake Forest 24

#21Stanford (6-2) @ #25Washington State (7-2) – 3:30PM ET, Fox

Prediction: Stanford 34, Washington State 28

#6Ohio State (7-1) @ Iowa (5-3) – 3:30PM ET, ESPN

Prediction: Ohio State 35, Iowa 17

#18UCF (7-0) @ SMU (6-2) – 7:15PM ET, ESPN2

Prediction: UCF 47, SMU 31

Texas (4-4) @ #8TCU (7-1) – 7:15PM ET, ESPN

Prediction: TCU 27, Texas 20

Oregon (5-4) @ #12Washington (7-1) – 10PM ET, Fox Sports 1

Prediction: Washington 41, Oregon 17 (Washington -17 is a BEST BET for Week Ten)

#22Arizona (6-2) @ #17USC (7-2) – 10:45PM ET, ESPN

Prediction: USC 44, Arizona 40

Tier Three

Northern Illinois (6-2) @ Toledo (7-1) – 6PM ET (Thursday), ESPNU

Prediction: Toledo 34, Northern Illinois 26

Navy (5-2) @ Temple (3-5) – 8PM ET (Thursday), ESPN

Prediction: Navy 31, Temple 24

Marshall (6-2) @ Florida Atlantic (5-3) – 6PM ET (Friday), CBS Sports Network

Prediction: Florida Atlantic 34, Marshall 30

#23Memphis (7-1) @ Tulsa (2-7) – 8PM ET (Friday), ESPN2

Prediction: Memphis 48, Tulsa 27

UCLA (4-4) @ Utah (4-4) – 9:30PM ET (Friday), Fox Sports 1

Prediction: Utah 35, UCLA 24

Western Kentucky (5-3) @ Vanderbilt (3-5) – 12PM ET, ESPNU

Prediction: Vanderbilt 35, Western Kentucky 21

UMass (2-6) @ #16Mississippi State (6-2) – 12PM ET, SEC Network

Prediction: Mississippi State 40, UMass 14

Florida (3-4) @ Missouri (3-5) – 12PM ET, ESPN2

Prediction: Florida 33, Missouri 23

Kansas State (4-4) @ Texas Tech (4-4) – 12PM ET, Fox Sports 1

Prediction: Kansas State 40, Texas Tech 31

Syracuse (4-4) @ Florida State (2-5) – 12:20PM ET, ACC Network

Prediction: Florida State 30, Syracuse 23

Georgia Tech (4-3) @ Virginia (5-3) – 3PM ET, ACC Network Extra 

Prediction: Georgia Tech 33, Virginia 17

Maryland (4-4) @ Rutgers (3-5) – 3:30PM ET, Big Ten Network/Big Ten Network 2

Prediction: Maryland 27, Rutgers 20

Army (6-2) @ Air Force (4-4) – 3:30PM ET, CBS Sports Network

Prediction: Air Force 35, Army 31

Northwestern (5-3) @ Nebraska (4-4) – 3:30PM ET, Big Ten Network/Big Ten Network 2

Prediction: Northwestern 30, Nebraska 24

#15Iowa State (6-2) @ West Virginia (5-3) – 3:30PM ET, ESPN2

Prediction: West Virginia 33, Iowa State 30

Ole Miss (3-5) @ Kentucky (6-2) – 4PM ET, SEC Network

Prediction: Kentucky 31, Ole Miss 27

Colorado State (6-3) @ Wyoming (5-3) – 7PM ET, CBS Sports Network

Prediction: Colorado State 30, Wyoming 24

Southern Miss (5-3) @ Tennessee (3-5) – 7:30PM ET, SEC Network

Prediction: Tennessee 33, Southern Miss 20

Minnesota (4-4) @ Michigan (6-2) – 7:30PM ET, Fox

Prediction: Michigan 27, Minnesota 13

Colorado (5-4) @ Arizona State (4-4) – 9PM ET, Pac-12 Network

Prediction: Colorado 31, Arizona State 28

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