College Football Weekly Picks – Now Updated For Bowl Season Weeks One & Two

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Welcome to the hub for your 2018 College Football Weekly Picks! This page will be updated as each new week comes with my predictions for every game that week. Any against the spread best bets (which hit almost 60% last year!) will also be listed here. Another fun feature that I like to incorporate is my tiered games. Many times I’ve heard somebody ask me what the “big games” are this week, and consider this your one-stop shop for that. I divide every FBS game each week into four tiers: the must-watch games, the maybe watch games, all other FBS vs FBS games, and the FBS vs FCS games.

Note: This is the average result of thousands of simulations for each game, so the scores will look a little wonky.

Year To Date Straight Up Record: 570-151 (79%)
Last Week’s Straight Up Record: 1-0 (100%)
Year To Date ATS Best Bets Record: 67-50-2 (17 games in the black!)
Last Week’s ATS Best Bets Record: 0-0

Bowl Season Week 2 Predictions

ATS Best Bets

Ohio (-3) vs San Diego State – 8 PM ET on 12/19
Western Michigan (+12) vs BYU – 4 PM ET on 12/21

Tier One Games (Must-Watch)

None this week

Tier Two Games (Maybe-Watch)

UAB (10-3) vs Northern Illinois (8-5) in Boca Raton, FL – 7 PM ET on 12/18, ESPN – Boca Raton Bowl

Prediction: UAB 26, Northern Illinois 24

San Diego State (7-5) vs Ohio (8-4) in Frisco, TX – 8 PM ET on 12/19, ESPN – Frisco Bowl

Prediction: Ohio 33, San Diego State 25 <- BEST BET ALERT (Ohio -3)

Marshall (8-4) @ South Florida (7-5) – 8 PM ET on 12/20, ESPN – Gasparilla Bowl

Prediction: Marshall 29, South Florida 24

Florida International (8-4) vs Toledo (7-5) in Nassau, Bahamas – 12:30 PM ET on 12/21, ESPN – Bahamas Bowl

Prediction: Toledo 33, Florida International 30

Western Michigan (7-5) vs BYU (6-6) in Boise, ID – 4 PM ET on 12/21, ESPN – Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Prediction: BYU 32, Western Michigan 25 <- BEST BET ALERT (Western Michigan +12)

Memphis (8-5) vs Wake Forest (6-6) in Birmingham, AL – 12 PM ET on 12/22, ESPN – Birmingham Bowl

Prediction: Memphis 40, Wake Forest 37

Houston (8-4) vs Army (10-2) in Fort Worth, TX – 3:30 PM ET on 12/22, ESPN – Armed Forces Bowl

Prediction: Army 34, Houston 33

Buffalo (10-3) vs Troy (9-3) in Mobile, AL – 7 PM ET ET on 12/22, ESPN – Dollar General Bowl

Prediction: Buffalo 30, Troy 27

Tier Three Games (FBS vs FBS)

Louisiana Tech (7-5) @ Hawai’i (8-5) – 10:30 PM ET on 12/22, ESPN – Hawai’i Bowl

Prediction: Louisiana Tech 25, Hawai’i 24

Bowl Season Week 1 Predictions

Tier One Games (Must-Watch)

Arizona State (7-5) vs Fresno State (11-2) in Las Vegas, NV – 3:30 PM ET on 12/15, ABC – Las Vegas Bowl

Fresno State has been absolutely tremendous this year, my computer model is normally not too friendly to G5 schools, but Fresno State ended the regular season ranked in the top 25, the only G5 school to do so other than UCF, and the Bulldogs finished just one spot behind the defending national champions. In fact, had Memphis held on against UCF in the AAC Championship last week, Fresno would be off to a NY6 bowl, but instead, they take on Arizona State in the always awesome Las Vegas Bowl. This will be one of the very few high-level P5 vs G5 games this year, and there are reports that the Bowl wants to end its agreement with the Mountain West at the end of the current contract, which would be awful. This bowl game has produced some great matchups the past few years like Utah-BYU and Boise State-Oregon and it would be a real shame to see the top game of bowl season week one to move away from the current Pac 12 vs Mountain West showcase. As for ASU, its been a great year despite the coaching change. The Sun Devils went just 7-5 but all five losses were by seven points or fewer, meaning that they realistically could have gone either way. ASU finished the year ranked in the top 30 of the computer model, almost 30 spots ahead of their preseason ranking of 55th. As for my prediction, WR N’Keal Harry will not be playing in this one for Arizona State as he is preparing for the NFL Draft. The Fresno defense is absolutely lock down, I’d be shocked if they let up anything in the 30s. Both teams need this, Herm Edwards to prove all his haters wrong, and Fresno to carry the flag for the Mountain West in a college football landscape quickly moving towards the AAC as the top G5 conference. Fresno is 9th is defensive S&P+, and without their top playmaker, I don’t have confidence in the ASU offense to hang with the Bulldogs. Give me Fresno by a score.

Prediction: Fresno State 31, Arizona State 24

Tier Two Games (Maybe-Watch)

Tulane (6-6) vs Louisiana (7-6) in Orlando, FL – 1:30 PM ET on 12/15, CBSSN – Cure Bowl

Prediction: Tulane 29, Louisiana 25

North Texas (9-3) vs Utah State (10-2) in Albuquerque, NM – 2 PM ET on 12/15, ESPN – New Mexico Bowl

Prediction: Utah State 37, North Texas 32

Georgia Southern (9-3) vs Eastern Michigan (7-5) in Montgomery, AL – 5:30 PM ET on 12/15, ESPN – Camellia Bowl

Prediction: Georgia Southern 28, Eastern Michigan 26

Middle Tennessee (8-5) vs Appalachian State (10-2) in New Orleans, LA – 9 PM ET on 12/15, ESPN – New Orleans Bowl

Prediction: Appalachian State 32, Middle Tennessee 23

Tier Three Games (FBS vs FBS)

None this week

Army vs Navy Prediction

Navy (3-9) vs Army (9-2) in Philadelphia, PA – 3 PM ET, CBS

Prediction: Army 31, Navy 19

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