College Football Bowl Predictions and Games To Watch – PART THREE

Straight Up 

Week One: 29-6 (83%)
Week Two: 29-6 (83%)
Week Three: 26-9 (74%)
Week Four: 27-8 (77%)
Week Five: 29-6 (83%)
Week Six: 27-8 (77%)
Week Seven: 26-9 (74%)
Week Eight: 26-9 (74%)
Week Nine: 23-12 (67%)
Week Ten: 22-13 (63%)
Week Eleven: 27-8 (77%)
Week Twelve: 26-9 (74%)
Week Thirteen: 25-10 (71%)
Week Fourteen: 8-3 (73%)
Army vs Navy: 1-0 (100%)
Bowl Season Part One: 5-5 (50%)
Bowl Season Part Two: 8-3 (73%)
Season: 364-124 (75%)

ATS Best Bets

Week One: 3-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 200$)
Week Two: 8-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 700$)
Week Three: 6-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 500$)
Week Four: 3-5 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve lost 200$)
Week Five: 4-3 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 100$)
Week Six: 3-2 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 100$)
Week Seven: 4-2 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 200$)
Week Eight: 2-4 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve lost 200$)
Week Nine: 4-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 300$)
Week Ten: 1-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve canceled out)
Week Eleven: 2-2-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve canceled out)
Week Twelve: 2-4 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve lost 200$)
Week Thirteen: 2-2 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve canceled out)
Week Fourteen: 1-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve canceled out)
Army vs Navy: 1-0 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 100$)
Bowl Season: 2-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 100$)
Season: 47-30-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 1,700$)

Note: Normally we have five tier one games, ten tier two games, and twenty tier three games, but there are not 35 games this week (and every future week ) so everything is going to change a little bit.

Tier One Games (Must Watch)

#22  Virginia Tech (9-3) vs #19  Oklahoma State (9-3) – 5:15PM ET, ESPN (Thu, 12/28) – Camping World Bowl

Mason Rudolph and the high-powered Oklahoma State offense against the famed Bud Foster defense makes for one of the most underrated games of bowl season. The last time we saw Virginia Tech play, the defense was on point, shutting out their in-state rival Virginia Cavaliers. The problem, they almost were shut out also, scoring just one touchdown on just a 4-play drive after UVA fumbled in their own territory. Whether you believe Virginia Tech will be able to score points or not, much of the focus will be on the other side of the ball, as Oklahoma State’s #4 offense takes on the Hokies’ #6 defense (opponent-adjusted S&P+ used as always). VT should at least be able to get the offense rolling, the weather should be much better in Orlando, and Oklahoma State’s defense is average at best, but with time ticking, I’m trusting Mason Rudolph over Virginia Tech freshman Josh Jackson. Give me the ‘Pokes by one possession.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 35, Virginia Tech 30

#18  Washington State (9-3) vs #16  Michigan State (9-3) – 9PM ET, Fox Sports One (Thu, 12/28) – San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl

God, this feels like such a Michigan State game. Mark Dantonio and the Spartans feel disrespected after being passed over by Michigan in selection for the Outback Bowl, a New Year’s Day game. A Michigan team they beat I might add. On top of that, the team they’re playing is the opposite of motivated after reports came out earlier this month that Mike Leach had accepted the head coaching position at Tennessee. In a vacuum though, Washington state should have this. Clayton Thorson and Trace McSorley blew up the Spartan secondary earlier this year, and Wazzu QB Luke Falk is better than both of them. Washington State has been shaky away from home throughout the season, but Mark Dantonio’s bowl record is just not good enough for me to pick against Falk and the Cougs.

Prediction: Washington State 30, Michigan State 27

#13  Stanford (9-4) vs #15  TCU (10-3) – 9PM ET, ESPN (Thu, 12/28) – Valero Alamo Bowl

This matchup made so much sense when it was announced. Not only is it the best non-New Year’s Six game in terms of the rankings of the teams, but these two teams both have a national image of playing old-school, smashmouth football. Both teams also lost the last time the played; Stanford to USC, and TCU to Oklahoma in their respective conference title games. TCU is ranked behind Stanford in the committee’s top 25 for reasons unbeknownst to me, but the Horned Frogs should match up very well with the Cardinal. Bryce Love’s speed is extraordinary, but if you can contain him, he’s not as elusive as you might think (NFL Draft Prospect Breakdown), and if anyone can contain Love’s speed, it’s TCU. The Horned Frogs run defense ranks #3 in the country in opponent-adusted S&P+, and that should carry them to a win.

Prediction: TCU 28, Stanford 24

Tier Two Games (Maybe Watch)

 Virginia (6-6) vs  Navy (6-6) – 1:30PM ET, ESPN (Thu, 12/28) – Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman 

Prediction: Navy 30, Virginia 21

 Wake Forest (7-5) vs  Texas A&M (7-5) – 1PM ET, ESPN (Fri, 12/29) – Belk Bowl

Prediction: Wake Forest 35, Texas A&M 28

#24  NC State (8-4) vs  Arizona State (7-5) – 3PM ET, CBS (Fri, 12/29) – Hyundai Sun Bowl

Prediction: NC State 37, Arizona State 31

 Kentucky (7-5) vs #21  Northwestern (9-3) – 4:30PM ET, ESPN (Fri, 12/29) – Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

Prediction: Northwestern 31, Kentucky 21

 New Mexico State (6-6) vs  Utah State – 5:30PM ET, CBS Sports Network (Fri, 12/29) – Nova Home Arizona Bowl

Prediction: Utah State 31, New Mexico State 30

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