These are NOT predictions of what the committee will do, rather, they are what I think the committee SHOULD do.
Sugar Bowl (Semifinal) – Clemson vs Alabama
Rose Bowl (Semifinal) – Georgia vs Oklahoma
Orange Bowl – Wisconsin vs Miami
Cotton Bowl – Washington vs Penn State
Peach Bowl – UCF vs Auburn
Fiesta Bowl – USC vs Ohio State
| Rank | Team | Change | Result | Why? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clemson (12-1) | Up 2 | Beat Miami 38-3 | Dominated Miami. |
| 2 | Georgia (12-1) | Up 4 | Beat Auburn 28-7 | Dominated Auburn. |
| 3 | Oklahoma (12-1) | Down 1 | Beat TCU 41-17 | Dominated TCU. |
| 4 | Alabama (11-1) | Up 1 | Bye Week | #1 in Vegas and CPU Rankings, plus only one loss. |
| 5 | Ohio State (11-2) | Up 2 | Beat Wisconsin 27-21 | Sorry, but that loss to Iowa drags down the Buckeyes. |
| 6 | UCF (12-0) | Up 4 | Beat Memphis 62-55 (2OT) | The only undefeated team in the country, and they have more top 25 wins than Alabama. |
| 7 | Wisconsin (12-1) | Down 3 | Lost to Ohio State 27-21 | Lowest ranked one-loss team, only one win vs the top 25. |
| 8 | Penn State (10-2) | No Change | Bye Week | Would make the top four if it really was the four best, but they’ll take a New Year’s Six bowl. |
| 9 | Auburn (10-3) | Down 8 | Lost to Georgia 28-7 | I had them #1 and they let me down, no way a three-loss team contends for the playoff. |
| 10 | Washington (10-2) | Up 1 | Beye Week | Dominated one of the two teams that beat USC. |
| 11 | USC (11-2) | Up 2 | Beat Stanford 31-28 | The blowout loss to a Notre Dame team that has faltered down the stretch keeps the Trojans from the top ten. |
| 12 | TCU (10-3) | No Change | Lost to Oklahoma 41-17 | We shouldn’t punish teams for making the conference title game, I expected TCU to lose and they did. |
| 13 | Oklahoma State (9-3) | Up 4 | Bye Week | Oklahoma State is extremely underrated this year, two/three losses are to top twelve teams. |
| 14 | Miami (11-2) | Down 5 | Lost to Clemson 38-3 | I told you Miami was the most overrated team in the country, and they proved me right. |
| 15 | Notre Dame (10-3) | Up 1 | Bye Week | Stanford’s loss killed any hopes of a New Year’s Six Bowl. |
| 16 | LSU (9-3) | Up 2 | Bye Week | Loss to Troy = no top 15 |
| 17 | Memphis (10-2) | Down 3 | Lost to UCF 62-55 (2OT) | Undefeated against teams not named “UCF” |
| 18 | Virginia Tech (9-3) | Up 1 | Bye Week | Decent year, beat the teams they should’ve beaten. |
| 19 | Northwestern (9-3) | Up 1 | Bye Week | Head-to-head over Michigan State. |
| 20 | Michigan State (9-3) | Up 1 | Bye Week | Win over Penn State keeps them in the top 20. |
| 21 | Washington State (9-3) | Up 1 | Bye Week | Beat USC, which is a better win than any team 22-25. |
| 22 | Toledo (11-2) | Up 3 | Beat Akron 45-28 | One of their two losses was to Miami. |
| 23 | South Florida (10-2) | Up 1 | Bye Week | South Florida gave my #6 team a hell of a game. |
| 24 | Florida Atlantic (10-3) | NEW | Beat North Texas 41-17 | FAU has won nine straight games! |
| 25 | Troy (10-2) | NEW | Beat Arkansas State 32-25 | Stanford losing devalues San Diego State’s resume, which allows Troy (who beat LSU) to bump the Aztecs. |
First Five Out: #26 San Diego State (10-2), #27 Stanford (8-4), #28 Boise State (10-3), #29 Louisville (8-4), #30, Mississippi State (8-4)