College Football Picks and ATS Best Bets – Week Twelve

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ATS Best Bets

Week One: 3-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 200$)
Week Two: 8-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 700$)
Week Three: 6-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 500$)
Week Four: 3-5 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve lost 200$)
Week Five: 4-3 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 100$)
Week Six: 3-2 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 100$)
Week Seven: 4-2 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 200$)
Week Eight: 2-4 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve lost 200$)
Week Nine: 4-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 300$)
Week Ten: 1-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve canceled out)
Week Eleven: 2-2-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve canceled out)
Season: 39-22-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 1,700$)

Best Bets for Week Twelve

USF (-22) over Tulsa – 7:30PM, ESPN (Thursday)
UCF (-13.5) over Temple – 12PM, ESPNU
Mississippi State (-12) over Arkansas – 12PM, CBS
Penn State (-26) over Nebraska – 4PM, FS1
LSU (-15.5) over Tennessee – 7PM, ESPN
Arizona (+2.5) over Oregon – 7PM, Pac-12 Network

Tier One

 Virginia (6-4) @ #3  Miami (9-0) – 12PM ET, ABC

We’ve heard it all week: now what? Coral Gables has been rocking with two huge games in the past week, but the ‘Canes now have to deal with a sneaky decent Virginia team that has three potential top-50 picks on their defense, and the noon kick means that they definitely won’t have the home field edge they had against Virginia Tech and Notre Dame. Miami probably won’t lose this game, the talent differential between the two teams is too big, but don’t be surprised if the ‘Canes have a letdown effect after last week’s game. I wouldn’t be surprised if Miami starts out flat and ends up winning by a couple scores, and I’d take Virginia plus the 19.5 here.

Prediction: Miami 34, Virginia 17

#24 Michigan (8-2) @ #5  Wisconsin (10-0) – 12PM ET, Fox

The one and only ranked vs ranked matchup in week twelve pits Wisconsin and Michigan in what could be the nail in the coffin that is the Big Ten’s playoff hopes if Michigan were to pull the upset here and knock off Wisconsin. The personnel matches up well for the Badgers though, Michigan’s quarterback play has been their biggest downfall this year, and that means that Wisconsin won’t have to deal with theirs, the secondary. The Michigan defense is good, very good, but they are young, and I expect the Badgers to wear down the Wolverines, and have one of those long Wisconsin drives we’ve come so accustomed to win the game. The Badgers will move to 11-0.

Prediction: Wisconsin 31, Michigan 24

 Navy (6-3) @ #8  Notre Dame (8-2) – 3:30PM ET, NBC

Last week Notre Dame went into Coral Gables as favorites and came out as laughing stocks. Like Vegas, I picked the Fighting Irish to win, even on the road, but ND got nearly shut out, scoring just once in a 41-8 beatdown at the hands of the Miami Hurricanes. Navy was in pretty much the opposite circumstances last week. In a game that was close down to the wire, the Midshipmen needed a last-second field goal to beat SMU 43-40. I would expect this Notre Dame team to come out hot after an embarrassing loss, and the way that Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo has built the Navy program, they aren’t built to come back from big deficits. Brian Kelly should have these guys motivated, and I’d expect Notre Dame to come out playing with an edge, take a big lead into halftime, and maybe let off the gas down the stretch.

Prediction: Notre Dame 40, Navy 24

 Kentucky (7-3) @ #7  Georgia (9-1) – 3:30PM ET, CBS

How will Georgia bounce back from that soul-crushing loss to Auburn? With 7-3 Kentucky. Now, the Wildcats record has been a little inflated due to a fairly easy schedule, but this is still a good team. We could be seeing a reverse Virginia effect in this game. I expected Miami to come off flat after a big win, in this case, I expect Georgia to come out motivated due to that Auburn loss. Kirby Smart won’t let these guys forget that from now on, every game is an elimination game. The Bulldogs are going to tear through this Kentucky team before gearing up for Clean Old Fashioned Hate next week against their rival Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, who could be fighting for a bowl berth.

Prediction: Georgia 38, Kentucky 14

 Utah (5-5) @ #18  Washington (8-2) – 10:30PM ET, ESPN

Washington blew it’s chance last week. The Huskies were the Pac-12’s last chance to make the playoff, and now the Huskies need some help to even win the division title. Without a Cal win this week, the Huskies will be shut out from the Pac-12 Title Game. The question is, will they still be motivated for this game, against Utah team that is highly motivated, fighting for a bowl game. Chris Petersen was able to be motivator-in-chief while at Boise State, and I think he’ll do the same here at Washington, leading the Huskies to a 9-2 record going into the Apple Cup.

Prediction: Washington 40, Utah 21

Tier Two

 Western Michigan (6-4) @  Northern Illinois (7-3) – 7PM ET, ESPN2 (Wednesday)

Prediction: Northern Illinois 33, Western Michigan 28

 Texas (5-5) @  West Virginia (7-3) – 12PM ET, ESPN

Prediction: West Virginia 31, Texas 27

 SMU (6-4) @ #21  Memphis (8-1) – 12PM ET, ESPNews

Prediction: Memphis 45, SMU 37

 TCU (8-2) @  Texas Tech (5-5) – 12PM ET, Fox Sports 1

Prediction: TCU 37, Texas Tech 27

 Louisiana-Monroe (4-5) @ #6  Auburn (8-2) – 12PM ET, ESPN2

Prediction: Auburn 49, Louisiana-Monroe 17 

#15  UCF (9-0) @  Temple (5-5) – 12PM ET, ESPNU

Prediction: UCF 42, Temple 23 (UCF -13.5 is a BEST BET for Week Twelve)

 Kansas State (5-5) @ #13  Oklahoma State (8-2) – 3:30PM ET, ESPN2

Prediction: Oklahoma State 44, Kansas State 28

 Nebraska (4-6) @ #10  Penn State (8-2) – 4PM ET, Fox Sports 1

Prediction: Penn State 45, Nebraska 14 (Penn State -26 is a BEST BET for Week Twelve)

#19  NC State (7-3) @  Wake Forest (6-4) – 7:30PM ET, ESPNU

Prediction: NC State 40, Wake Forest 35

 UCLA (5-5) @ #11  USC (9-2) – 8PM ET, ABC

Prediction: USC 45, UCLA 30

Tier Three

 Ohio (8-2) @  Akron (5-5) – 7PM ET, ESPN2 (Tuesday)

Prediction: Ohio 37, Akron 14

 Tulsa (2-8) @  South Florida (8-1) – 7:30PM ET, ESPN (Thursday)

Prediction: South Florida 48, Tulsa 14 (South Florida -22 is a BEST BET for Week Twelve)

#16 Mississippi State (7-3) @  Arkansas (4-6) – 12PM ET, CBS

Prediction: Mississippi State 38, Arkansas 17 (Mississippi State -12 is a BEST BET for Week Twelve)

 Minnesota (5-5) @ #23  Northwestern (7-3) – 12PM ET, Big Ten Network/Big Ten Network 2

Prediction: Northwestern 27, Minnesota 21

 Pittsburgh (4-6) @  Virginia Tech (7-3) – 12:20PM ET, ACC Network Extra

Prediction: Virginia Tech 37, Pittsburgh 17

 Fresno State (7-3) @  Wyoming (7-3) – 2PM ET, ATSN.tv

Prediction: Wyoming 24, Fresno State 17b

#4  Oklahoma (9-1) @  Kansas (1-9) – 3:30PM ET, ESPN

Prediction: Oklahoma 54, Kansas 10

 Syracuse (4-6) @  Louisville (6-4) – 3:30PM ET, ESPNU

Prediction: Louisville 41, Syracuse 31

 Georgia Tech (5-4) @  Duke (4-6) – 3:30PM ET, ACC Network Extra

Prediction: Georgia Tech 27, Duke 17

 Purdue (4-6) @   Iowa (6-4) – 3:30PM ET, Big Ten Network/Big Ten Network 2

Prediction: Iowa 28, Purdue 20

 Illinois (2-8) @ #9  Ohio State (8-2) – 3:30PM ET, ABC

Prediction: Ohio State 51, Illinois 7

 Houston (6-3) @  Tulane (4-6) – 4PM ET, ESPNews

Prediction: Houston 34, Tulane 24

 Army (8-2) @  North Texas (7-3) – 6:30PM ET, beIn Sports

Prediction: Army 28, North Texas 27

#20  LSU (7-3) @  Tennessee (4-6) – 7PM ET, ESPN

Prediction: LSU 35, Tennessee 14 (LSU -15.5 is a BEST BET for Week Twelve)

 Texas A&M (6-4) @  Ole Miss (5-5) – 7PM ET, ESPN2

Prediction: Texas A&M 34, Ole Miss 31

 Marshall (7-3) @  UTSA (5-4) – 7PM ET, Facebook

Prediction: UTSA 27, Marshall 21

 Arizona (7-3) @  Oregon (5-5) – 7PM ET, Pac-12 Network

Prediction: Arizona 40, Oregon 35 (Arizona +2.5 is a BEST BET for Week Twelve)

 Florida International (6-3) @  Florida Atlantic (7-3) – 7PM ET, Twitter

Prediction: Florida Atlantic 37, Florida International 23

 California (5-5) @  Stanford (7-3) – 8PM ET, Fox

Prediction: Stanford 34, California 20

 Air Force (4-6) @ #25  Boise State (8-2) – 10:15PM ET, ESPN2

Prediction: Boise State 40, Air Force 17

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