Week Ten College Football Top 25 – A New #1 & Washington State falls out

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Rank Team  Change Result Why?
 1  Georgia (8-0)  Up  Beat Florida 42-7  We have a new number one. Georgia’s dominating win over Florida gave me my confidence back after a Missouri game that was way closer than it should have been late in the 3rd quarter. Georgia has the road win over Notre Dame, miles better than anything on Alabama’s schedule, so they move up to #1.
 2  Alabama (8-0)  Down  Bye Week  Sorry Crimson Tide fans. Alabama does not have a single win over any team ranked in my top 30, Georgia has a road win over #4, so the Tide drops to #2. They’ll get a chance to change that number from zero to one as they get LSU in primetime on CBS this week.
3  Ohio State (7-1)  Up  Beat Penn State 39-38  Ohio State beat the #2 team in the country, so even with a loss on its resume, the Buckeyes are my new #3 team, only behind Alabama and Georgia. Iowa and Michigan State could be resume-boosting wins over the next two weeks, but also potential upsets.
 4  Notre Dame (7-1)  Up  Beat NC State 35-14  I moved Notre Dame up to #4 this week, and even that might be too low. Notre Dame’s only loss is by a single point to the best team in the country and the Fighting Irish have back-to-back dominating wins over two top-25 teams in NC State and USC.
 5  Penn State (7-1)  Down  Lost to Ohio State 39-38  Controversial statement: I think Penn State is still one of the four best teams, but because of that non-conference schedule, they are nowhere close to the fourth most deserving. A one-point road loss equates to about a seven-point win if the game was in College Station, and the Nittany Lions led for the whole game. I’m one of those people that think that game control matters (See Miami’s ranking).
6  Clemson (7-1)  Up  Beat Georgia Tech 24-10  I can not seem to get a read on Clemson. They might have the worst loss of any team in the top-15, but you have t0 take into account that the Tigers were missing their quarterback for most of that game. Right now, #6 feels right to me, but that can grow with a win over NC State this week.
 7  Oklahoma (7-1)  Up  Beat Texas Tech 49-27  Oklahoma’s road win over Ohio State is still the best win of any team thus far, and the loss to Iowa State doesn’t look too bad right now, but game control is a key part of my system, and the Sooners were a few plays away from losing to the likes of Baylor and Texas.
 8  Wisconsin (8-0)  Down  Beat Illinois 24-10  8-0, but not a single win against a team in my top 30, and they won’t get a chance at that until November 18th against Michigan. For now, the Badgers won’t fall out of the top ten, but probably won’t climb into the top six either, and will just float around until we see if they’re for real.
 9  Oklahoma State (7-1)  Up  Beat West Virginia 50-39  Yeah, I’m not too confident about this one, but I have the ‘Pokes ranked ahead of TCU. Oklahoma State has wins over Texas Tech, West Virginia, and Texas. Either way, one of the Oklahoma schools is falling out of the top ten this week, we will see which one it is.
 10  Virginia Tech (7-1)  Up  Beat Duke 24-3  I’m thinking that this Tech team is a little underrated. Only loss was to Clemson when they had a healthy Kelly Bryant. Other than that Clemson game, the Hokies have a scoring margin of +29.2 per game, including games against West Virginia and Boston College.
 11  Miami (7-0)  Down  Beat North Carolina 24-19  Ugh, I know Miami is not top ten worthy. Sorry, they just aren’t. Their best win is…. Toledo? And the ‘Canes last four wins have all been one possession games. This feels like a “luck runs out” type of team that will lose a random game. A team that can barely beat North Carolina (1-8) does not deserve to be in the top ten, sorry.
 12  UCF (7-0)  No Change  Beat Austin Peay 73-33  I thought about moving UCF ahead of Miami. While the ‘Canes only win against a top 30 team is Toledo, UCF has a win against my #20 team, Memphis. Right now I would still pick Miami on a neutral field, but UCF probably has the better resume, especially when taking game control into account. The Knight wiped the floor with Memphis, while Miami has struggled to beat mediocre teams.
 13  TCU (7-1)  Down  Lost to Iowa State 14-7  I dropped TCU a little more than most, because I had figured for a few weeks that TCU was overrated. I still picked TCU, but my computer model had the Horned Frogs pegged as an overvalued team in my rankings, I had TCU at four, and the computer had them hanging around the 8-12 range.
 14  Washington (7-1)  Down  Beat UCLA 44-23  I know it was against UCLA, but Washington seems to have rebounded. The Huskies are now 7-1 heading into a November slate which is by far their toughest month. They didn’t drop because of any reason other than after re-evaluation I felt that the Oklahoma schools deserved to jump UW.
 15  Auburn (6-2)  Up  Bye Week  Bye Week, nothing much to see here. They move up thanks to Washington State’s loss.
 16  USC (7-2)  Up  Beat Arizona State 48-17  USC asserted their dominance over an Arizona State team that beat Washington, and thanks to Washington State’s loss, the Trojans are now the #2 team in the Pac-12, ahead of Stanford by one spot thanks to the head-to-head from all the way back in Week Two.
 17  Stanford (6-2)  Up  Beat Oregon State 15-14  Stanford has become the new team I just don’t know what to do with. The Cardinal almost lost to a terrible Oregon State team this past week, I gave them a pass on that because the best player on the team was injured, but there are no more excuses, with Washington State, Washington, and Notre Dame still on the schedule, this could be a top ten team or a 7-5 team.
 18  Iowa State (6-2)  Up  Beat TCU 14-7  In my first draft of rankings, Iowa State made the top 15, and it is undeniable that ISU’s pair of wins is incredible. However, there are two other games that caused me to reconsider and place them at 18, those two losses, which came at the hands of Texas and Iowa, two teams with a combined record of 9-7, just barely over .500.
 19  Mississippi State (6-2)  Up  Beat Texas A&M 35-14  Mississippi State shot all the way up to a fringe top ten teams after beating LSU, but thanks to the Tigers’ subsequent losses and back-to-back embarrassing performances on national TV for Mississippi State, the Bulldogs fell out, I moved them back in a couple weeks back, and after a win over Texas A&M, they are now bowl eligible.
 20  Memphis (7-1)  NEW  Beat Tulane 56-26  The UCLA win is a nice resume piece, as are wins over Navy and Houston in the past month, but that big loss to UCF causes the Tigers’ ranking to be dragged down a bit. I’m not sure if the Tigers can climb much higher than this with remaining games against Tulsa, SMU, and ECU.
 21  NC State (6-2)  Down  Lost to Notre Dame 35-14  At first I dropped the Wolfpack all the way out of the Top 25, but I decided against it. The loss to Notre Dame was bad, but a loss this week to Clemson will end aany hopes of an ACC Title, and will almost assuredly drop the Wolfpack outside of the top 25.
 22  LSU (6-2)  No Change  Bye Week  Bye Week, nothing changes.
 23  Michigan (6-2)  NEW  Beat Rutgers 35-14  I don’t feel great about it, but Michigan is back in after beating Rutgers. With Wisconsin and Ohio State still on the docket, this is probably a four loss team at best, but we don’t make rankings based on projections, just the here and now.
 24  Arizona (6-2)  NEW  Beat Washington State 58-37  This is a team I do feel good about, and they might’ve climbed higher if it wasn’t for those two losses early on in the season to Houston and Utah. I know that the Wildcats didn’t start Khalil Tate for those games, but he wasn’t injured. I’ll reevaluate these guys after the USC game.
 25  USF (7-1)  Down  Lost to Houston 28-24  Most people probably dropped USF all the way out, but it was a four point loss to a Houston team that does have a win over Arizona and was a play away from having one over Memphis as well. Don’t sleep on the Bulls, they could still contend for a New Year’s Six bowl.

Dropped Out: Washington State, Michigan State, Toledo

Next Five Out: #26 Washington State, #27 Toledo, #28 Michigan State, #29 Boise State, #30 South Carolina

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