Bob Davie is back for year eight at New Mexico. Davie has gone 33-54 in Albuquerque, with just two winning seasons and back-to-back 3-9 years the past two years, and very serious off the field issues between the two years, I was shocked the Lobos didn’t pull the plug.
The schedule isn’t bad, and Davie is making a last-ditch effort bringing in JUCOs and two new coordinators, but I’m not bullish on his chances.
Former Liberty (ugh) OC Joe Dailey is the new head man after a very solid year with the Flames, including a demolishment of the New Mexico defense in a head-to-head matchup last year. The quarterback race feels pretty open. Tevaka Tuioti feels like the option for the future, but one-time Tennessee signee Sherrion Jones was the main starter last year (he wasn’t good), redshirt freshman Trae Hall and JUCO Brandt Hughes feel like longshots.
Whoever the QB is, there are some pass-catchers to throw to, five of the top seven return, including leading returnees Elijah Lilly and Anselem Umeh, both deep threats that averaged over 17 yards per catch. UCF/JUCO transfer Emmanuel Logan-Green will be the slot threat.
The run game feels shaky. Sherrion Jones, who averaged just 3.6 YPC last year, is the top returner, but sophomore Kentrail Morgan is a highly touted recruit that could turn heads after missing last year with an injury. The line returns four of five but will lose an all-conference guard.
This offense was not going to be good to begin with and is dealing with a coordinator change, but I do think they progress to the mean a little bit after poor years from the QB and RB groups last year.
The new DC was promoted from within, Jordan Peterson. Peterson is in charge of fixing a defense that hasn’t allowed under six yards per play in recent memory.
Peterson has essentially nothing to work with, just two starters return, so natrurally a ton of JUCOs and transfers come in.
Trent Sellers is a Georgia Tech/JUCO transfer at end, and Brandon Burton is a UCLA transfer who redshirted last year. They are the two highlights with P5 experience, but there are a ton of JUCO transfers on the defense.
I’m really worried about the defense, as they are essentially hoping a bunch of backups from a bad team and a mismatch of JUCOs will be good. The biggest concern is the secondary where a couple of guys with hardly any experience will be expected to start.
The schedule isn’t too bad, they have a few winnable games at home against Sam Houston State, New Mexico State, and Colorado State.
The JUCO plug on defense is always risky, and I really don’t see any way this team gets to a bowl or how Davie survives the year, but I didn’t think he’d survive last year.
|Date||Opponent||opp. rank||Proj. Margin|
|31-Aug||Sam Houston State||NR||n/a|
|14-Sep||at Notre Dame||10||-28.4|
|21-Sep||New Mexico State||125||5.6|
|4-Oct||at San Jose State||116||-3.2|
|16-Nov||at Boise State||32||-20.4|
Average Projected Record: 4.2 wins, 7.8 losses (2.0 wins, 6.0 losses)