2017 Virginia Gubernatorial Primary – LIVE Coverage

2013_virginia_gubernatorial_election_map

9:35PM – Goodbye

Today’s primary proved that the Trump movement hasn’t died just yet, and Tom Perriello’s skeletons on abortion and gun control proved too much for Virginia voters. Thank you all for staying with me for the past 2 hours and change, and I hope I will see you next Tuesday for GA-06 and SC-05.

9:30 UPDATE – ED GILLESPIE HOLDS OFF STEWART, WINS R GOV PRIMARY

Governor (D) – Called for Northam at 7:49PM

Ralph Northam – 55%
Tom Perriello – 45%

Governor (R) – Called for Gillespie at 9:29PM

Ed Gillespie – 44%
Corey Stewart – 43%
Frank Wagner – 14%

Lt. Governor (D) – Called for Fairfax at 8:03PM

Justin Fairfax – 49%
Susan Platt – 39%
Gene Rossi – 12%

Lt. Governor (R) – Called for Vogel at 9:16PM 

Jill Vogel – 42%
Bryce Reeves – 41%
Glenn Davis Jr. – 17%

House Of Delegates District 13 (D) –  Called for Roem at 8:34

Danica Roem – 45%
Steven Jansen – 30% (-1)
Mansimran Kahlon – 19% (+1)
Andrew Adams – 6% (-1)

9:26 – Very close to calling it for Gillespie

Just waiting for a LITTLE BIT more out of Northern Virginia.

9:15 UPDATE – R Lt. Gov CALLED FOR JILL VOGEL

Governor (D) – Called for Northam at 7:49PM

Ralph Northam – 55%
Tom Perriello – 45%

Governor (R)

Ed Gillespie – 44%
Corey Stewart – 43%
Frank Wagner – 14% (+1)

Lt. Governor (D) – Called for Fairfax at 8:03PM

Justin Fairfax – 49%
Susan Platt – 39% (-1)
Gene Rossi – 12%

Lt. Governor (R) – Called for Vogel at 9:16PM (90% in)

Jill Vogel – 42%
Bryce Reeves – 41%
Glenn Davis Jr. – 17%

House Of Delegates District 13 (D) –  Called for Roem at 8:34

Danica Roem – 45%
Steven Jansen – 31%
Mansimran Kahlon – 18%
Andrew Adams – 7%

9PM UPDATE

Governor (D) – Called for Northam at 7:49PM

Ralph Northam – 55%
Tom Perriello – 45%

Governor (R)

Ed Gillespie – 43.5% (-0.2)
Corey Stewart – 43.1% (+0.2)
Frank Wagner – 13.4% (-0.1)

Lt. Governor (D) – Called for Fairfax at 8:03PM

Justin Fairfax – 49%
Susan Platt – 40% (+1)
Gene Rossi – 12%

Lt. Governor (R)

Jill Vogel – 42% (-1)
Bryce Reeves – 41%
Glenn Davis Jr. – 17%

House Of Delegates District 13 (D) –  Called for Roem at 8:34

Danica Roem – 45%
Steven Jansen – 31%
Mansimran Kahlon – 18%
Andrew Adams – 7%

8:56 – Fairfax is in

And Gillespie’s lead is slowly crawling back up.

8:45 UPDATE

Governor (D) – Called for Northam at 7:49PM

Ralph Northam – 55% (-1)
Tom Perriello – 45% (+1)

Governor (R)

Ed Gillespie – 43.7%
Corey Stewart – 42.9%
Frank Wagner – 13.5%

Lt. Governor (D) – Called for Fairfax at 8:03PM

Justin Fairfax – 49%
Susan Platt – 39%
Gene Rossi – 12%

Lt. Governor (R)

Jill Vogel – 42.5%
Bryce Reeves – 40.7%
Glenn Davis Jr. – 16.8%

House Of Delegates District 13 (D) –  Called for Roem at 8:34

Danica Roem – 45%
Steven Jansen – 31%
Mansimran Kahlon – 18%
Andrew Adams – 7%

8:43 – Big Areas still out, but Gillespie should worry

Charlottesville, Norfolk, Fairfax still out, should be Gillespie territory.

8:38 – Gillespie, Vogel up 2,000 votes each over Stewart, Reeves

Gillespie – 43.6
Stewart – 42.8

Vogel – 41.8
Reeves – 41.1

8:34PM – VA-13 (D) Primary called for Danica Roem

Roem could be the first transgender member of the Virginia State Legislature.

8:30 PM UPDATE

Governor (D) – Called for Northam at 7:49PM

Ralph Northam – 56%
Tom Perriello – 44%

Governor (R)

Ed Gillespie – 44%
Corey Stewart – 43% (+1)
Frank Wagner – 14%

Lt. Governor (D) – Called for Fairfax at 8:03PM

Justin Fairfax – 49%
Susan Platt – 39%
Gene Rossi – 12%

Lt. Governor (R)

Jill Vogel – 42% (-1)
Bryce Reeves – 41% (+1)
Glenn Davis Jr. – 17%

House Of Delegates District 13 (D)

Danica Roem – 47%
Steven Jansen – 24%
Mansimran Kahlon – 23%
Andrew Adams – 6%

8:24 – PRINCE WILLIAMS MY GOD

Gillespie’s lead just went from 2.8% to 0.8%, WOW.

8:22 – Big dump from Prince Williams…

and it’s great for Corey Stewart, he just cut Gillespie’s lead in half.

8:15PM UPDATE (% change is from 8-8:15)

Governor (D) – Called for Northam at 7:49PM

Ralph Northam – 56% (-2)
Tom Perriello – 44% (+2)

Governor (R)

Ed Gillespie – 44% (+1)
Corey Stewart – 42% (+1)
Frank Wagner – 14% (+1)

Lt. Governor (D) – Called for Fairfax at 8:03PM

Justin Fairfax – 49% (+1)
Susan Platt – 39% (-1)
Gene Rossi – 12%

Lt. Governor (R)

Jill Vogel – 42% (-1)
Bryce Reeves – 41% (+1)
Glenn Davis Jr. – 17%

House Of Delegates District 13 (D)

Danica Roem – 47%
Steven Jansen – 24%
Mansimran Kahlon – 23%
Andrew Adams – 6%

8:10 – Corey Stewart is making this a race

rep2

8:03 – Danica Roem, transgender journalist holds big lead in VA-13

House Of Delegates District 13 (D)

Danica Roem – 47%
Steven Jansen – 24%
Mansimran Kahlon – 23%
Andrew Adams – 6%

8 PM UPDATE – JUSTIN FAIRFAX WINS LT. GOVERNOR (D) PRIMARY

Governor (D) – Called for Northam at 7:49PM

Ralph Northam – 58%
Tom Perriello – 42%

Governor (R)

Ed Gillespie – 43%
Corey Stewart – 41%
Frank Wagner – 15%

Lt. Governor (D) – Called for Fairfax at 8:01PM

Justin Fairfax – 48%
Susan Platt – 40%
Gene Rossi – 12%

Lt. Governor (R)

Jill Vogel – 43%
Bryce Reeves – 40%
Glenn Davis Jr. – 17%

7:55 PM – Frank Wagner stealing votes

7:49 PM – BREAKING: RALPH NORTHAM WINS DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Northam dominating in Richmond, Virginia Beach, and has lead in Northern Va. Not enough West of Cville to make it up for Perriello.

7:45 PM UPDATE

Ralph Northam – 57%
Tom Perriello – 43%

Ed Gillespie – 44%
Corey Stewart – 42%
Frank Wagner – 15%

Justin Fairfax – 48%
Susan Platt – 40%
Gene Rossi – 12%

Jill Vogel – 43%
Bryce Reeves – 41%
Glenn Davis Jr. – 16%

7:42 – Henrico 

Northam 57-43 Perriello
Gillespie 55-33 Stewart

7:40 – First Numbers in from No. Va. (Loudon County)

Northam 51-49 Perriello
Stewart 45-43 Gillespie (WOW)

7:37 – Awesome map by DecisionDeskHQ: Counties resized by population

rep dem

 

7:35 – Northam, Gillespie extend leads

Ralph Northam – 57%
Tom Perriello – 43%

Ed Gillespie – 43%
Corey Stewart – 40%
Frank Wagner – 18%

Justin Fairfax – 46%
Susan Platt – 35%
Gene Rossi – 19%

Jill Vogel – 45%
Bryce Reeves – 38%
Glenn Davis Jr. – 17%

7:31 – It’s early, but… (Democrat Edition)

Northam is up big in Henrico and Chesterfield early, suburbs of Richmond, high minority vote, if Northam wins them, it bodes well for him in North Va.

7:27 – It’s early, but…

Corey Stewart doing REALLY well in southwest Virginia early, Gillespie will need to do well in Northern Virginia to keep him at bay.

7:23 – More votes starting to trickle in

Ralph Northam – 56%
Tom Perriello – 44%

Ed Gillespie – 47%
Corey Stewart – 44%
Frank Wagner – 9%

Justin Fairfax – 53%
Susan Platt – 34%
Gene Rossi – 14%

Bryce Reeves – 42%
Jill Vogel – 42%
Glenn Davis Jr. – 16%

7:20 PM – FIRST RESULTS

Perriello – 44%
Northam – 56%

Gillespie – 46%
Stewart – 44%
Wagner – 9%

7:15 PM – Still No Results

7 PM – Polls Close

We are expecting the first results at around 7:10

6:45 PM – 15 Minutes until Polls Close

6 PM – ONE HOUR TILL POLLS CLOSE! 

We should get first results from Western Virginia around 7:10 PM

5:19 PM – Early Voting Numbers make Perriello smile

according to VPAP there has been a 204% increase in early voting in Charlotteville, Perriello’s hometown, and an 88% increase in the surrounding county of Albemarle.

5:09 PM – Cville turns out big, expected to go for Perriello


4:46 – Turnout, Turnout, Turnout

Expected at 12% today

4:41 – Democratic Gubernatorial Primary Prediction

Perriello should run up margins in Charlottesville (maybe 75% here) and the western parts of the state, Northam should do the same in Norfolk/the Eastern Shore. I would expect Perriello carries Richmond, as he is expected to turn out young voters, but Northam should take the surrounding counties such as Chesterfield. Northern Virginia will be the closest region, I would expect Perriello to win Arlington, but Northam carry the rest by a point or two. For Perriello to win, he needs to kill Northam in West, Central, and South Central VA, and he has to keep it close in Northern Virginia. This election will come down to African American turnout, and if Northam wins the AA vote and therefore Richmond and Arlington, Perriello stands no shot. So, key areas: see turnout/votes in Charlottesville, check on Northern VA (specifically Arlington), Richmond and surround counties of Richmond (Chesterfield, Henrico etc…)

The Prediction: CLOSE

4:34 – PREDICTIONS

Gov (R) Gillespie by 15+, Stewart second
Lt. Gov (R) Vogel by less than 5, Reeves second, Davis better than expected
Lt. Gov (D) Fairfax by 5, Platt turns out women but not enough

4:23 – Odds and Ends

There are 27 state delegate primaries, most notably of which the Democratic Primary in VA-13, although in two of those 27, there have been dropouts.

4:21 – Virginia Democratic Gubernatorial Primary Preview

Tom Perriello – Endorsed by Bernie Sanders, John Podesta, and a handful of top Obama aides. Perriello represent VA-05 (my district) from 2008-2010 (I guess technically January 09-11) before being wiped out by the tea party wave. He was friends with President Obama, and worked in the White House after he lost his seat. He is seen as outside of the norm for a Democrat. Perriello is to the left of the party on climate change and income inequality, but to the right on gun control and aborition, which Northam has hit him on. His ads show him being endorsed by Obama (in 2008) and defending Obamacare in front of a crushed ambulance. He has led in the polls, but most experts see him as a slight underdog. Spent 2 Million.

Ralph Northam – Endorsed by both Virginia senators, the current governor, and almost the entire Democratic caucus in the state house, the current Lt. Governor expected to run unopposed in the primary. He voted for an assault weapons ban, supports a 15 dollar minimum wage, and has spent the majority of the campaign trying to out-progressive Perriello. He has more money, and the backing of pretty much all of the state government, but progressives have questioned him for voting for Bush in 2000 and 2004, something he claims he only did because he wasn’t paying attention to politics at the time. Spent 3.7 Million

4:13 PM – Democratic Governor Polls in the past month.

CSP Polling – 2.1% MoE

Perriello – 46%
Northam – 41%
UNDECIDED – 13%

Change Research – 3.1% MoE

Perriello – 54%
Northam – 46%

Hampton University – 4.2% MoE

Perriello – 29%
Northam – 21%
UNDECIDED – 50%

Internal Perriello Poll

Perriello – 37%
Northam – 36%
UNDECIDED – 29%

Internal Northam Poll

Northam – 50%
Perriello – 33%
UNDECIDED – 17%

Washington Post – 6% MoE

Perriello – 40%
Northam – 38%
UNDECIDED – 18%

4:03 PM – Republican Gubernatorial Primary Preview

Ed Gillespie – The establishment figure (Think Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio) who has the most money by far. He ran for Senator in 2014 and came a lot closer to winning then expected. Gillespie has done pretty much everything in Republican politics. He was a special advisory to Bush II, he chaired the RNC for the 2004 presidential campaign, he chaired the Virginia state Republican Party, and now he is running for office with the endorsements of everyone from Scott Walker to Marco Rubio. Spent 1.7 Million

Corey Stewart – The Trump candidate. As chairman of the Prince Williams Board of Supervisors he cracked down on undocumented immigrants before joining the Trump campaign and subsequently getting fired for things he said about the RNC’s treatment of Trump. He has made confederate monuments the most important issue of the campaign and led in the most recent poll, but is still expected to finish second. If he is to even stand a chance, he needs to run up margins in the Western part of the state. Spent 400 Thousand

Frank Wagner – The John Kasich. He is expected to finish a distant third in this race, but has been a moderate voice in the divisive campaign, he supports a sliding scale for the gas tax and other positions that are seen as too far left for mainstream Republican politics. He is endorsed by the Washington Post and will get a lot of votes from Northern Virginia, but that’s about it. Spent 100 Thousand

3:53 PM – Republican Governor Polls in the past month

Change Research – 3.1% MoE

Corey Stewart – 42%
Ed Gillespie – 41%
Frank Wagner – 16%

Washington Post – 7% MoE

Ed Gillespie – 38%
Corey Stewart – 18%
Frank Wagner – 15%
UNDECIDED – 24%

3:46 PM – Republican Lt. Gov Primary Preview

There are also three candidates for Lt. Governor on the Republican side. All three candidates are currently working in Virginia state politics. They are: State senator Jill Vogel, state senator Bryce Reeves, and state delegate Glenn Davis Jr. This has been ugly. Reeves has accused Vogel of sending out an email claiming he had an affair with a campaign staffer. Vogel denied it, but the IP of the email linked back to her husband’s cell phone, who claims he was hacked. Reeves is an ultra-right conservative, and to try and earn votes, the moderate Vogel has rebranded her self as just as conservative as Reeves. As a state senator she voted for gun restrictions after Sandy Hook, and anti-discrimination bills for LGBT’s, but now, she has aligned herself with a gun rights group more conservative then the NRA, and EW Jackson, a hardline anti-gay conservative. Reeves is probably even more conservative then Vogel, he supports concealed carry without a permit and a host of other far-right policies. Glenn Davis, who is expected to finish a distant third, could surprise everyone by just avoiding the scandal that has plagued this campaign. He has traveled around the state in an RV to save money and relate to the average voter. There was one poll conducted for this race, showing Vogel up one point, but with 66% undecided in that poll, it is statistically almost useless. Vogel has spent almost 1 million dollars, Reeves has spent over half a million, and Davis is spent around 100,000 dollars. Vogel is the slight favorite, but a Reeves win wouldn’t be all that surprising.

3:29 PM – Democratic Lt. Governor Primary Preview

There are three candidates for Lt. Governor on the Democratic side. All three candidates are formal federal prosecutors, listed in order from most likely to win to least likely, they are: Assistant US attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia Justin Fairfax, former chief of staff to Joe Biden; Susan Platt, and Gene Rossi. Fairfax challenged current Virginia Attorney General Mark Herring in the Democratic Primary four years ago, and he came a lot closer to winning than expected, taking in 48% of the vote. He is the likely winner, he was on the ballot four years ago, is the best speaker of the three, and has spent almost three times the amount of money as Platt, and 6.5 times the amount of money as Rossi. There has been no polling for this race, but the Biden connection, as well as the women turnout should keep it close for Platt, but Fairfax is expected to dominate the northern part of the state as well as Richmond, where he has vastly outspent his opponents.

3:05 PM – Welcome! Polls close at 7 ET

Welcome to the CSD LIVE coverage of the 2017 Virginia Gubernatorial Primary. I did live coverage for the Presidential election and that did well, we even made the final call almost two hours before the AP did. This is not the first statewide election since the presidential election, that would be the New Jersey Gubernatorial Primaries, which were last week. The main races were not very close though, so I did not do live coverage. Polls close at 7, and we should get results soon after.

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